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760
FXUS62 KRAH 152355
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will remain pinned south of central North
Carolina through tonight then pivot up across western North Carolina
through Sunday. High pressure will extend into the region from the
Atlantic through much of the upcoming week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 214 PM Saturday...

The surface front has largely pushed into central SC. Meanwhile, a
sea-breeze is evident on KLTX radar, pushing inland but still pinned
just inland of the coast. The last few hours of satellite data has
indicated some agitated cumulus developing mainly from Sampson
County and locations south. Most 12Z CAMs keep activity south of
central NC, but the inland penetrating sea-breeze could warrant some
very isolated showers or storms along the Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain late this afternoon and evening. Any activity should
wane after sunset with loss of heating. Some light gusts are
possible tonight as the sea-breeze moves into central NC, but
overall the flow should trend ESE overnight as the high to our north
builds eastward. As that happens, some low stratus could form over
the western Piedmont/Triad early Sun with return upslope flow. Some
CAMs are even showing some isolated showers in this area. Have left
the forecast dry at the moment given lack of forcing. Lows tonight
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

A strong ~593dm upper level anticyclone will shift eastward and will
become centered over NC.  Underneath the associated 30 meter H5
rises, surface high centered over New England will ridge south down
the mid-Atlantic and Carolina seaboard.

Differential heating and terrain-induced lift via low-level SELY
flow along the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians will
support scattered showers and storms across the NC mtns and
foothills during the afternoon and evening. Given proximity to this
weak forcing and/or associated outflow, cannot rule out a stray
shower across the far western counties. Otherwise, dry conditions
will persist.

The low-level easterly maritime flow into the area will also result
in slightly cooler daytime highs. Highs ranging from mid 80s north
to lower 90s south, with noticeably less humid air, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area near the low-level
ridge axis where dewpoints will lower into the 50s.

Lows Sunday night 63-68 with some patchy fog/stratus possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

...Hot and dry next week with increasing temperatures and minimal
rain chances...

The forecast for much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather
with increasingly warm temperatures. An anomalously strong H5 ridge
(with heights around 592-594dm) will center itself over NC on Monday
and remain virtually stationary through the middle of the week. At
the surface, high pressure off the coast will promote a prolonged
period of southeasterly winds through Wednesday. While there will be
some moisture on the periphery of the ridge, it`s likely to pool
against the mountains to our west with any potential for showers or
storms confined to areas of the far western Piedmont. Elsewhere,
it`ll be a challenge to get much more than high clouds across the
area given strong subsidence throughout the column. Temperatures for
the first half of the week should range from the low to mid 90s,
with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Thursday the ridge will strengthen further and begin to shift
northward. By late week, 500mb heights are forecast to approach 596-
597dm which would be near record values at KGSO for mid June. At the
surface, this will translate to even warmer temperatures with late
week highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s. Return flow from the
ridge will serve to advect additional moisture into the area and
precip chances will increase, but only slightly. Strong subsidence
aloft will likely limit the potential for any widespread/beneficial
precipitation across the area but afternoon pulse-type showers could
potentially become more common by next weekend. Grand ensemble still
only suggesting 10-15 percent PoPs late in the week which is
certainly higher than earlier in the week, but still below climo. Of
note: there are some 12Z ensemble members that suggest a subtropical
plume of moisture and troughing will enter the area late in the week
but exactly how that evolves and what (if any) forcing mechanism
comes into play is still very uncertain.

In terms of sensible weather impacts next week, increasing
temperatures could be problematic for individuals that are sensitive
to heat. While Heat Index values will generally stay out of the
triple digits through next Saturday (thanks in large part to
dewpoints in the 60s vs the 70s), other heat tools such as Wet Bulb
Globe Temperature (which takes into account full exposure to the sun
along with wind speeds and humidity) and HeatRisk (which examines
temperatures relative to climatology along with CDC data) suggest
next weekend`s conditions could warrant the first heat-related
headlines of the year for portions of central NC. However, the
chance of showers and storms and associated cloud cover could keep
conditions below dangerous values, adding to the uncertainty of next
weekend`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Saturday...

There is a low probability of a brief MVFR to IFR cig may develop
near the Triad terminals within a tongue of increased moisture as it
advects E to W across central NC after midnight. Confidence remains
low on the development of low MVFR cigs after daybreak at GSO/INT,
but latest NWP continues to hint at this possibility especially
among the more pessimistic guidance. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Surface winds will remain
stirred overnight veering to E to SE through the afternoon/evening.

Outlook: Some early morning stratus is possible at KINT/KGSO Mon
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
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&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett/Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Swiggett/Kren