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615
FXUS61 KRLX 241014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
614 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms tapering off as a cold front crosses
this morning. More seasonable air and drier weather today.
Another cold front Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 605 AM Monday...

Updated temperatures and PoPs to match current obs and radar.
Showers have largely dissipated minus a few across Raleigh and
Fayette counties. Low clouds will remain across the mountain
through a portion of the morning, but elsewhere going to see
lifting and scattering as the morning goes on.

As of 230 AM Monday...

A few showers and thunderstorms remain across the mountains
this morning as a cold front moves across the area. This
activity is expected to gradually diminish through the morning.
Low clouds and fog will likely form across the mountains and
western foothills as showers and storms taper off, but there
should be enough low-level flow to keep fog and low cloud
formation limited elsewhere. Low temperatures this morning will
drop into the 60s for most locations (upper 50s for the highest
elevations) as cooler air arrives with the frontal passage.

High pressure moves in behind the cold front to keep the area
dry today. A few low clouds may remain in the mountains through
the morning, but otherwise skies will lift and scatter through
the morning with mixing. Flow shifts northwest today allowing
for less hot and more seasonable temperatures compared to the
sweltering days we have had. High temperatures for the lowlands
will range between 78 and 86 degrees; the mountains staying in
the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. These temperature ranges
are around normal to slightly below for this time of year.

Low temperatures tonight into early Tuesday look to be a few
degrees below normal as high pressure moves overhead and flow
shifts northeasterly, gradually slacking off as the region
decouples. Upper 50s and low 60s forecasted for the lowlands;
mostly 50s expected in the mountains. Patchy to dense river
valley fog formation looks like a possibility as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather on Tuesday,
with temperatures climbing back above normal for this time of
year.

A cold front and an upper level trough will then bring showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Some models are indicating at
least 2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Models do have differences on prefrontal energy and
precipitation. The cold front should push through late Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Some models indicate enough remaining
moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
mountains on Thursday. More seasonable temperatures will return
again for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching from will increase the
chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday.
Models have a cold front pushing through on Sunday, although
there are differences in timing between the models.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 108 AM Monday...

A few showers, some with lightning, remain across the mountains
as a cold front moves through the area this morning. Allowed
TEMPO for SHRA or VCSH/VCTS to sites where appropriate. Most of
the activity will remain across the mountains for the remainder
of the morning.

MVFR stratocu and some patchy fog will likely develop along the
eastern mountains and western foothills this morning as showers
taper off and cooler temperatures filter in behind FROPA. Some
models and current obs suggest MVFR or IFR stratocu will form
elsewhere this morning as winds slack off, but NW flow picking
up later this morning should impeded this from occurring. VFR
will take back over by late morning/early afternoon for most
locations as clouds clear.

Winds will be WNW and light with FROPA, becoming variable and
light to calm behind it. Light winds pick up with a NW`rly
direction by daybreak, then shift out of the NE this evening
into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms ending
may vary from forecast. There is a chance that IFR/MVFR stratocu
or fog formation is more widespread than advertised this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in fog early Tuesday morning. Brief
IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC