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104
FXUS61 KRNK 231747
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A front crosses the region tonight bringing with it a chance
for isolated showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
overnight. Drier weather returns for Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures and humidity gradually increasing again through
Wednesday. The next chance of rain and thunderstorms arrives on
Wednesday afternoon, with the heat again returning Friday and
Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and humid today, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible.
2. Drier and a few degrees cooler Monday.

Plentiful sunshine today and west-southwesterly surface flow
has helped push temperatures back into the upper 80s and low to
mid 90s. Heat indices are approaching the upper 90s out in the
Piedmont, and near 100 degrees is certainly possible, though
generally staying below Heat Advisory criteria. Scattered
cumulus clouds have developed, especially along and west of the
Blue Ridge, and some higher level clouds are starting to reach
the area from the west. This may impact temperatures in the west
if that cloud cover can thicken enough before diurnal heating
peaks, but thinking plenty of heating before then for the
increase in cloud cover to make much of a cooling difference on
high temperatures this afternoon. Overnight, not thinking a lot
of relief from the heat, with the clouds lingering until
tomorrow morning, as lows only reach the low to mid 60s in the
west and and low 70s in the east. Monday will be a few degrees
cooler than today, with the passage of the cold front. The
biggest difference in temperatures will be felt in the west,
where highs could be five to ten degrees cooler tomorrow than
today, and with a decent northwesterly breeze and drier airmass,
should feel more pleasant. Highs tomorrow in the east will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s, as the front exits the area after
mid morning.

With ample daytime heating today, high res guidance is showing good
surface based instability, especially out in the east.
A few thunderstorms have already developed in the Piedmont this
early afternoon, tapping into the better moisture and
instability. The better forcing is well to the north of the
area, closer to the upper low, so coverage would be isolated to
scattered at best. As the front nears the mountains this evening
and into tonight, storms may develop over the higher terrain
with the additional orographic forcing. Forecast soundings show
an inverted V profile, and decent DCAPE, so the primary threat
continues to be damaging winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

     - Increasing confidence of lower humidity on Tuesday
     - Next front and thunderstorms on Wednesday

A drier air mass advances into the Mid Atlantic region as the cold
front progresses into the Carolinas. Surface dew points will lower
into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon which will result in a lower heat
index.

Deeper moisture and a higher probability of thunderstorms will
return to the region on Wednesday ahead of the next upper long wave
trough and surface cold front. The best dynamics and jet structure
remain north of the region, so expecting isolated to scattered
coverage of thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Only plan to deviate from NBM temperature guidance is on Monday
night when surface dew points lower and surface high pressure
directly over the central Appalachians will lead to light and
variable or calm winds. Will lower mins Monday night a few degrees
below guidance.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

    - Heat returns for Friday and Saturday
    - Moderate confidence for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday

Thursday and Friday will have a limited threat for showers and
thunderstorms behind the mid week front. The upper pattern returns
to zonal flow with little forcing for any organized probability of
precipitation. The North American Ensemble shows 500MB ridging from
the Southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic region by Saturday with
above normal heights over the Mid Atlantic States. Overall warm
temperatures at mid levels of the atmosphere may create a cap on
thunderstorm development, but by Saturday there will be at least an
isolated threat of thunderstorms, especially near the typically
favored higher elevations.

Long range synoptic scale guidance brings the next cold front
through the region on Sunday. Will keep probability of precipitation
in the chance range until the timing trends with this front become
more consistent.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions across the area today, and are expected through
most of the TAF period, ending at 18Z Monday, the exception
being possible sub-VFR ceilings west of the Blue Ridge mountains
late tonight into Monday morning, as a cold front approaches
and then crosses the area. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front this
afternoon into the overnight, and may bring periods of sub-VFR
ceilings and visibilities, as well as strong, gusty winds and
lightning. However, confidence is low on coverage and specific
locations of storms, so have opted to not include TS in the TAFs
at this time. Best timing looks to be between 18Z/2 PM to 00Z/8
PM in the east, and 22Z/6 PM to midnight in the west, though
some showers may linger after midnight in southeast West
Virginia. Ceilings lift and skies clear after 14Z Monday.

West-southwesterly winds between 5 and 15 knots continue this
afternoon, with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible, but decrease
overnight. Following the frontal passage early Monday morning,
winds will turn northwesterly, after 12Z/8 AM, around 5 to 10
knots, and could gust to 15 to 20 knots towards the end of the
TAF period.

Forecast confidence is high, but low on storm coverage.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions expected through much of the week, with the only
exception being areas of valley fog in the early morning hours.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Sunday 06/23/2024
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    90 1988    45 2021     51 1972     71 2015
KDAN   100 1988    47 1918     67 1936     81 1923
KLYH    98 1911    48 1918     60 1972     77 1996
KROA    98 1914    46 1947     61 1972     75 1996
KRNK    95 1914    38 1902     63 1972     70 1896

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/BMG
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AS/BMG
CLIMATE...BMG