Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
496 FXUS62 KTBW 130027 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 827 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 819 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Most of the convection has seamer down across the CWA with only a few storms left over the interior. This trend should continue over the next few hours, but model guidance bring back showers and storms overnight and into the early morning hours. Then, chances continue to increase throughout the day with showers moving across on/off with a few breaks in between. An additional 2-3 inches of rain is anticipated on Thursday, especially in portions SWFL. In terms of temperatures, it should be similar to today with upper 80s south and low to mid 90s elsewhere. A few adjustments to the POPs were made, otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A difficult forecast with lots of uncertainty around the timing and reformation of showers and storms across terminals. Most of the convection is now inland and south with only a few storms developing along weak outflow boundaries, which should dissipate over the next few hours. Some activity is expected to develop later tonight and into the early morning hours of Thursday, perhaps continuing on and off through the day. Intermittent MVFR to IFR conditions are anticipated during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 90 78 89 / 50 60 50 90 FMY 76 87 76 87 / 60 90 80 100 GIF 76 89 75 90 / 50 70 50 90 SRQ 77 89 76 89 / 70 80 70 90 BKV 72 92 72 92 / 40 60 60 80 SPG 80 89 80 90 / 60 60 60 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota. Gulf waters...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close