Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
036 FXUS62 KTBW 130721 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 321 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Main deep tropical moisture plume is located across south Florida, just brushing Lee/Charlotte counties. This will be the focus for the best potential for additional heavy rainfall today. Long fetch south to southwest 1000-850MB flow continues highly favorable pattern for advecting significant transport of moist unstable airmass over southwest Florida. Mid level moisture convergence as seen in W/V imagery will also aid convective destabilization this morning over southwest Florida. Although main axis of heaviest rainfall may end up developing just south of the forecast area, proximity to overall boundary axis will be close enough to warrant high pops/heavy rain threat today across southwest Florida...and a flood watch continues from Sarasota county and south including Hardee and DeSoto due to the excessive rainfall/saturated ground that has occurred during the past couple of days. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will advect in off the Gulf of Mexico along the coastal counties during the morning hours, mainly from Pinellas county and south, however the main threat for locally heavy rain across central areas will occur this afternoon as daytime heating will lead to increasing instability and scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in conditionally unstable atmosphere. Highest pops across central areas will be over the interior due to the onshore flow which will push activity inland as the day progresses...although numerous outflow boundaries may still trigger scattered storms back along the coastal counties late in the day. Shower/thunderstorm activity will wind down during the evening hours, but a few showers may persist along the coastal counties with highest pops again over southwest Florida. Moisture plume will likely hold over south Florida on Friday and Saturday, with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms again likely over southwest Florida and the interior with locally heavy rain possible each day. Surface high pressure is expected to build north of the area on Sunday which should allow boundary layer winds to shift to the northeast/east. This will create a more typical summertime pattern with the main focus being convection developing along the west coast seabreeze boundary during the mid/late afternoon hours. Deepest moisture will remain over southwest Florida...which will be the region with highest pops/best chance for rain. And this pattern will hold through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs associated with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning may impact all terminals for several hours. Area of heavier rain/isolated storms is expected to develop around or shortly after sunrise over southwest Florida and may impact FMY/RSW...and possibly PGD...with LCL IFR VSBYs and MVFR CIGs. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to develop this afternoon and again may impact all terminals for a few hours with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Main hazard through the weekend will be isolated thunderstorms which may create locally gusty winds and rough seas. Next week, easterly flow will develop and potential for a few hours of SCEC conditions may occur during the evening hours as easterly surge of wind develops around sunset...weakening around midnight each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as minimum afternoon relative humidity values will remain above critical levels each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 91 79 / 70 60 80 50 FMY 88 76 88 76 / 90 80 90 70 GIF 93 76 93 76 / 80 60 80 40 SRQ 91 76 91 77 / 70 50 80 60 BKV 94 71 95 72 / 70 60 60 40 SPG 91 81 91 81 / 60 50 80 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming