027
FXUS65 KABQ 150513 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1113 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Cooler temperatures are forecast tonight. Thunderstorms on the far
eastern plains are forecast to produce a half inch to around 1
inch of rain across much of the far eastern plains this evening
into the late night hours. A warming trend will occur Saturday and
Sunday, then it will remain quite warm over eastern areas Monday
and Tuesday as western areas trend cooler. There will be an
increased risk of heat-related illness in Roswell Sunday through
Tuesday as the high temperature varies from 105 to 106 degrees
from day to day. Fire weather concerns are also expected across
much of the eastern plains Monday and Tuesday due to breezy-to-
windy conditions and very low humidities. The mid-to-latter half
of the coming week looks cooler with increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico spreads
northwestward across New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The current big picture features a 586dm H5 low opening to a trough
over northern AZ this afternoon. Abundant mid to upper level
moisture has advected northward ahead of it into the middle swath of
NM. This morning`s 12Z sounding at ABQ featured a healthy 0.70"
PWAT, and higher moisture lay further east over NM where southerly
return flow has brought Td`s into the low 50s to near 60. So far,
light to moderate rain has accompanied showers through the Rio
Grande Valley with isolated embedded thunderstorms focused along a
convergent surface boundary oriented N-S in the highlands from near
Las Vegas to Ruidoso. These individual cells will continue to track
north to northeast as the overall line and area of showers and
thunderstorms migrates eastward toward the TX line later this
evening. The surface wind field has been a conundrum this morning as
well, notably along and west of the central mountain chain with
northerly winds focusing through the middle Rio Grande Valley
despite southerly flow ahead of the upper low. These northerly winds
will become more erratic in direction and speed as showers and a few
storms move through this afternoon.

Hazards with afternoon and early evening convection will focus
mainly through northeastern NM in the form of locally heavy rainfall
over burn scars (HPCC) and a marginal risk for a storm or two to
become severe. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and hail up to
quarters in size are possible. Less robust convection is expected
further south, although a couple of storms producing locally heavy
rainfall did skirt past the Blue 2 and McBride burn scars late
morning. Showers and a few storms will try to push back
southeastward over east-central NM late evening to near midnight
before overall rain chances finally die down heading into Saturday
morning.

The overnight period sees clearing skies west to east over the
forecast area with abundant low level moisture loitering over
eastern and central NM. Cooling temperatures, abundant low level
moisture and lowering wind speeds will allow for fog potential
mainly over the highlands of Torrance and Guadalupe Counties.
Temperatures rise over most areas Saturday with the clearing
conditions. Thunderstorm chances will be near zero most areas except
closer to the CO border along the high terrain and along the TX line
where the higher low-level moisture will still reside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

With a ridge of high pressure overhead, the warming trend will
continue through Sunday when high temperatures will peak around
4-11 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Southwest winds will become
breezy to windy over eastern areas Monday and Tuesday as a
longwave trough deepens over the western US strengthening the
flow aloft over NM and inducing a roughly 985 mb surface low in
eastern CO. There will be fire weather concerns over much of
eastern NM both days as high temperatures remain a few to several
degrees above normal with very low humidities. High temperatures
varying from 105-106 degrees in Roswell Sunday through Tuesday
will increase the risk of developing heat-related illness.
Meanwhile, high temperatures will trend closer to 30-year averages
over western areas Monday and Tuesday.

The mid to latter half of the work week will feature increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures as the
trough on the west coast and an easterly wave passing to the south
of New Mexico induce moist southeasterly return flow across the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with a couple
of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are likely in scattered
storms between KTCC and KROW through 09Z. MVFR cigs are forecast
to develop at KLVS early Saturday morning, but will be short-
lived. Otherwise, mostly light winds will prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Relatively cooler and wetter weather pushing through central NM
this afternoon and will advance through the eastern plains fire
weather zones late today and evening, exiting into TX overnight.
Drier weather will push into western NM late today amid increasing
southwesterly flow as an upper low crosses northern NM. This area
of drier air will advance through central NM Saturday with
abundant low level moisture holding onto the eastern plains zones.
The drier air and lower humidity will steadily advance eastward
each day heading into next week, reaching the TX border by Monday.
Temperatures will rise back to near or above normal as well, with
southwesterly winds also taking a step up in strength each day.
Critical fire weather concerns reach a peak Monday and Tuesday as
a result, with a lee- side surface low enhancing the southwesterly
wind potential through the highlands and adjacent plains in
eastern NM. The limiting factor here will be how today`s rainfall
and moisture will help green up the fine fuels in this area.
Thereafter, a backdoor cold front will replenish moisture through
the eastern plains ending the critical fire weather threat there
Thursday and Friday. Some of this moisture will try to push
westward into the Rio Grande Valley by Friday, but western NM
looks to remain mostly dry at this time to end the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  93  57  95 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  89  43  91 /  20   0   0   0
Cuba............................  49  87  54  90 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  45  92  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  50  87  52  87 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  46  91  50  93 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  51  89  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  56  89  63  92 /  10   0   5   0
Datil...........................  54  87  60  89 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  46  95  48  94 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  62  99  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  42  82  47  85 /  20   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  56  85  63  89 /  40   5   0   5
Pecos...........................  53  86  58  89 /  50  10   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  44  81  49  84 /  30  10   5   5
Red River.......................  42  75  46  78 /  30  10  10   5
Angel Fire......................  38  79  40  82 /  40  10   5   5
Taos............................  46  86  50  90 /  30  10   5   0
Mora............................  46  84  51  87 /  40  10   5   5
Espanola........................  53  93  57  96 /  30   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  56  87  61  90 /  60   5   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  54  89  60  94 /  50   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  92  68  96 /  40   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  95  65  98 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  96  60 100 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  95  66  98 /  40   0   5   0
Belen...........................  56  96  55 100 /  30   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  59  96  64  99 /  40   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  95  54  99 /  30   0   0   0
Corrales........................  59  96  64  99 /  40   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  96  56  99 /  30   0   5   0
Placitas........................  59  91  66  95 /  40   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  95  65  98 /  40   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  98  66 102 /  20   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  86  62  89 /  40   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  56  88  62  92 /  40   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  51  89  56  93 /  50   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  90  53  94 /  50   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  51  84  56  89 /  50   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  52  88  57  92 /  40   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  89  58  93 /  50   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  62  94  66  97 /  40   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  87  59  89 /  30  10   0   5
Capulin.........................  51  83  54  88 /  60  20  10  10
Raton...........................  51  87  52  93 /  40  20  10   5
Springer........................  52  89  53  94 /  50  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  51  84  55  89 /  50  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  59  89  62  95 /  70  20  10   5
Roy.............................  55  85  58  92 /  60  10  10   5
Conchas.........................  60  92  62  99 /  60  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  90  61  95 /  60  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  91  64  98 /  70  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  64  92  66  97 /  60  10  20   0
Portales........................  64  95  66  98 /  50  10  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  93  66  99 /  60  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  71 101  71 105 /  40  10   5   0
Picacho.........................  61  94  63  99 /  30  20   5   5
Elk.............................  57  95  61  98 /  30  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11