545
FXUS65 KABQ 010550 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The 2024 North American Monsoon continues in full swing across
central and western NM through tonight, with strong storms capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall and causing flash flooding.
Good chances for storms will continue each afternoon and evening
through Wednesday, with a downtick forecast on Independence Day. A
backdoor front will recharge moisture across eastern and central
NM on Friday, bringing good chances for storms back to the eastern
half of the region while western NM remains mostly dry through
the weekend. A slow warming trend is forecast through mid week,
with the hottest temperatures forecast on Independence Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Anomalously high atmospheric moisture continues across the area,
with the 12Z KABQ upper air sounding showing a PWAT of 1.35",
which ranks in the top 3 all time for June. The dewpoint
temperature was still 60 at KABQ at 1PM, which is exceedingly
rare. The atmosphere was worked-over yesterday evening and
overnight, so a slower start this afternoon, but we`re still
anticipating an active late afternoon and evening with storms
favoring the western half of the area. The latest CAMs show a
significant expansion in coverage and intensity from 2-5PM out
west as well as around the burn scars near Ruidoso. The threat
for flooding on the HPCC burn scar is relatively lower today as
the upper high to the east has extended a ridge axis westward over
north central portions of the state. Latest modeling shows
convection persisting overnight, especially near the CO border in
closer proximity to the westerlies. The upper level ridge will
back off a bit Monday and allow the westerlies associated with an
upper level trough moving from the Great Basin toward the central
Rockies to penetrate further south into northern NM. This will
increase west to east storm motion and bring more shear for a
slight uptick in hail and gusty winds Monday afternoon/evening.
The threat for burn scar flooding will tick up for the HPCC on
Monday and remain constant for the scars near Ruidoso, where very
little rainfall will cause dangerous flooding. Off-scar flash
flooding can not be ruled out Monday either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The westerlies will penetrate further south into central NM
Tuesday, while the upper level ridge holds on across the southern
half. Meaning, more storm motion and better structure for storms
across the northern half of the state. Similar setup and another
active day Wednesday, although the upper level ridge across the
southern half will lose it`s grip a tad and allow for increased
coverage. The burn scar flood threat will remain elevated both
Tuesday and Wednesday. All models show a downtrend in PWATs
Wednesday night through Independence Day as an upper level
trough/low moving across the central/northern Rockies steers drier
air on northwest flow aloft over most of the state. Independence
Day will be the least convectively active day and the hottest of
the forecast period, with high temperatures above normal most
areas. The ejecting trough will push a backdoor front down the
eastern plains Thursday night into Friday and recharge moisture to
the central mountain chain, setting the stage for an active
northwest flow pattern through the weekend with the upper high
located over CA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Scattered showers and storms will favor areas along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Convection will likely continue to
initiate along outflow boundaries through as late as 09Z so its
difficult to pinpoint exactly which locations will get a storm.
Gusty outflow winds up to 35KT and small hail may accompany
storms during the overnight.

Numerous storms are expected tomorrow afternoon, with the
greatest coverage in an area extending from the southwest mtns to
the Sangre de Cristo mtns. Wet microbursts will be a concern
along with significant lightning activity as storms cluster
together. The most likely timing for storms for terminals along
the Rio Grande Valley will be between 22Z and 06Z, but this
timing may change in future TAF packages as hi-res models get a
better handle on tomorrow`s round of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at
least the next seven days as an active North American Monsoon
continues, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms and good to
excellent humidity recovery. An elevated threat for burn scar
flooding will exist through Wednesday, then trend down
Independence Day before a backdoor front recharges moisture on
Friday and brings a renewed threat for burn scar flooding going
into the weekend. Increasing northwest flow aloft will dry-out
western portions of the area from Independence Day onward through
the weekend, brining back hot, dry and unstable conditons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  83  61  89 /  70  60  20  20
Dulce...........................  56  78  51  84 /  70  70  30  30
Cuba............................  59  78  56  82 /  50  70  40  40
Gallup..........................  59  83  56  86 /  70  60  30  30
El Morro........................  57  79  57  82 /  70  70  50  50
Grants..........................  60  82  57  84 /  70  70  50  60
Quemado.........................  59  81  59  82 /  70  70  50  70
Magdalena.......................  62  84  64  83 /  70  70  50  70
Datil...........................  58  80  59  80 /  70  60  40  70
Reserve.........................  56  87  57  87 /  70  60  30  60
Glenwood........................  65  91  67  93 /  70  50  30  60
Chama...........................  53  73  50  78 /  60  70  40  30
Los Alamos......................  60  79  61  81 /  50  70  60  50
Pecos...........................  57  81  57  82 /  40  60  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  77  49  80 /  30  70  40  30
Red River.......................  49  69  48  72 /  20  70  40  40
Angel Fire......................  50  74  48  74 /  20  60  30  30
Taos............................  57  81  55  82 /  30  60  30  30
Mora............................  53  80  54  81 /  20  60  40  40
Espanola........................  63  86  61  87 /  40  60  50  30
Santa Fe........................  61  81  61  82 /  50  60  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  63  84  61  86 /  50  50  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  86  67  87 /  50  60  70  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  88  66  88 /  50  60  70  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  90  65  90 /  50  50  60  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  88  66  88 /  50  60  60  50
Belen...........................  66  91  64  90 /  40  50  50  50
Bernalillo......................  66  88  66  89 /  50  50  60  40
Bosque Farms....................  64  90  62  90 /  40  50  60  40
Corrales........................  65  89  64  89 /  50  50  60  50
Los Lunas.......................  64  90  62  90 /  40  50  60  40
Placitas........................  64  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  66  87  66  88 /  50  60  60  50
Socorro.........................  68  93  69  92 /  40  50  40  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  81  61  82 /  50  70  70  40
Tijeras.........................  62  84  62  84 /  50  70  70  40
Edgewood........................  59  85  60  85 /  40  60  70  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  86  57  86 /  40  60  60  40
Clines Corners..................  56  82  57  83 /  30  40  60  40
Mountainair.....................  59  85  60  85 /  50  50  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  59  86  59  86 /  50  50  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  66  89  68  90 /  50  30  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  58  81  60  82 /  40  40  20  50
Capulin.........................  60  84  59  85 /   5  50  30  40
Raton...........................  59  88  58  89 /  10  50  30  30
Springer........................  60  89  60  91 /  10  40  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  58  81  58  83 /  20  40  50  40
Clayton.........................  64  93  67  93 /   5  20  20  30
Roy.............................  63  87  63  89 /  10  40  30  30
Conchas.........................  68  95  69  95 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  91  66  93 /  10  30  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  68  98  69  99 /   5  10  10  20
Clovis..........................  68  96  70  98 /   0  10  10  10
Portales........................  68  97  70  99 /   0  10   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  70  96  71  97 /   5  20  10  20
Roswell.........................  74 100  75 104 /   5  10  10  20
Picacho.........................  66  92  66  94 /  10  30  20  40
Elk.............................  62  89  63  91 /  30  20  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Monday for NMZ201>203-205-206-210-211-
213>215-226-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16