045
FXUS65 KABQ 232120
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An isolated shower or two will pop up over the northern mountains
today, but otherwise a calm, warm, and dry pattern is expected
through the bulk of the week. Patchy fog may develop the next few
mornings in the Pecos River Valley, but disappear by midday.
Temperatures will gradually increase each day to Thursday, with
highs being 5 to 10 degrees above average, mainly in the central and
western regions of the state. Isolated gusty winds are possible
Friday and Saturday with virga showers over the northern mountains.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above average into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Fairly tranquil weather reigns supreme through the short term period
tonight through Tuesday night. New Mexico is under a lagging
troughing pattern. The surface airmass behind the cold front that
swung through eastern NM earlier this past weekend is modifying with
warming temperatures today. Meanwhile, there is a cumulus field over
the northern mountains where a few showers and an isolated
thunderstorm is expected. In fact, one isolated thunderstorm is
present near Tres Piedras where lift and instability collocated with
the upper trough is. This activity will steadily taper off this
evening.

Surface flow across the eastern plains will begin to switch back out
of the south maintaining abundant boundary layer moisture present
over the Caprock and portions of the lower Pecos River Valley. Calm
winds and clear skies will allow for another round of patchy fog to
develop in this area Tuesday morning. Elsewhere it will be another
very pleasant day across the Land of Enchantment. The only other
feature of note is the leading edge of a frontal boundary backing
into northeastern NM that will keep temperatures consistent with
today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A dome of high pressure will move its way into the intermountain
west and will continue to provide calm conditions for the Land of
Enchantment on Wednesday. The high will build to around 590dm at
500mb, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time
of year. A near carbon copy is expected on Thursday, with the high
centering itself directly over NM. Temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday will be anywhere from 5-10F above average, mainly for the
RGV, though some locations along I-40 in Guadalupe and Quay Counties
will be slightly below average on Wednesday.

As the high sits over us, an interesting scenario plays out in the
southeast US. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is forecast by the NHC to
become Hurricane Helene later this week and ride up into the Florida
panhandle. The low pressure that caused our severe weather this past
weekend will have stalled in the lower Mississippi River Valley
through the middle of this week, and may enact a bit of a Fujiwhara
Effect with PTC9. This would nudge the low west a touch late
Thursday into Friday, employing slight mid-level moisture advection.
This moisture would likely be the source of some higher based clouds
with the potential for virga showers Friday afternoon, mainly over
the north-central mountains, as the lower levels remain drier. This
trend would play out similarly on Saturday.

Model disagreement comes into play later in the weekend and into
next week. The GFS has latched onto a robust Alberta Clipper that
would dive into the north central US on Monday, forcing a backdoor
cold front into NM on Monday evening with strong gap winds. The
ECMWF on the other hand has a 594dm high centered over the Gila
National Forest and thus no backdoor front. Ensemble data is
trending to favor the ECMWF, with a broader ridge forming over the
southwest US. While not completely out of the question, confidence
is low in the GFS solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR with light prevailing winds nearly all areas today. A few
stray light showers over the northern mountains could produce a
stray wind gust this afternoon. Some patchy fog and low clouds
will also be possible in the east- central and southeastern
plains late tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

No critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Calm
prevailing weather will be present each day, alongside some patchy
morning fog in parts of central and eastern NM. A few stray virga
showers could produce a stray and erratic gusty wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  81  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  79  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  43  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39  80  40  85 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  43  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  40  81  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  43  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  43  86  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  52  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  74  41  75 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  50  76  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  48  76  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  38  64  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  28  68  28  72 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  38  76  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  46  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  49  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  45  85  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  86  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  43  85  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  85  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  82  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  54  88  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  51  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  40  81  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  76  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  47  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  79  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  76  47  74 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  45  70  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  42  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  42  78  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  43  76  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  76  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  47  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  50  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  48  79  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  56  87  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  55  87  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  51  85  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  58  91  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  85  52  81 /   0   5   0   0
Elk.............................  50  84  50  79 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24