830
FXUS65 KABQ 162055
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
255 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An unseasonably deep upper low over the Inland Northwest and
Northern Rockies will result in an uptick in southwest breezes on
Monday and Tuesday. A cold front dropping in from the northeast
will bring Gulf moisture into the eastern plains on Wednesday
with chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
along with much cooler air. The rain chances continue through at
least Friday as Gulf moisture continues to surge into the state
from the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Drier westerly to southwesterly flow has pushed far into western NM
and is mixing out what low-level moisture was left over in the Rio
Grande Valley this afternoon. Dewpoints have falling from near 50F
at ABQ into the upper 20s. This has allowed high temperatures to
climb from yesterday`s readings and the Heat Advisory for Roswell
where the temperatures is 100F this hour is still on track. Drier
air mixing to the surface scouring out low-level moisture will
relocate the dryline to along the NM/TX border. Hi-res CAMs are
still resolving a few discrete thunderstorm cells initiating along
this gradient around 4pm to 5pm MDT. SBCAPE of 500 to 1500 J/kg and
modest bulk shear of 25 to 30 kts will allow a storm or two to
become strong to severe as they track east to northeast into TX this
evening.

Moisture advances back west into the eastern plains tonight into
Monday morning. However, strengthening southwesterly flow through
western and central NM will quickly advance the dryline back east to
along the TX border. There is another marginal risk for a few
discrete thunderstorms developing along the moisture gradient near
the TX line to become strong to severe Monday afternoon and early
evening. Otherwise, temperatures come down a few degrees most areas
thanks to lowering pressure heights from a synoptic troughing
pattern over the western CONUS nudging further into northwestern and
central NM. Winds pick up a notch given the tightening pressure
gradient aloft, aided by a deepening 985mb MLSP surface low along
the Front Range of the Rockies in CO. Breezy to locally windy
conditions with gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible, and as high
as 45+ mph in the northeastern highlands and plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An unseasonably deep cluster of upper lows over Canada and the
PACNW will help create a monsoon like pattern during the extended
period. Gulf moisture is forecast to surge northwestward into NM
behind a backdoor frontal passage during the latter half of the
upcoming week. While these lows phase with one another Monday
night into Tuesday over northern Canada, a large rain cooled
source region/mesohigh is expected to develop over much of MT and
the Northern Plains. This rain cooled air is forecast to get
fanned out over the Great Plains on Tuesday, pushing its way into
northeast NM by Tuesday night. This frontal passage then sets the
stage for deep Gulf moisture to increase from West TX late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Initially, models are indicative of
the moisture boundary triggering its own convection as it slide
westward through NM during the day Wednesday, but then weak
impulses from the flow in between a remnant trough over northern
CA and the PACNW and the Bermuda High over the southeast U.S. act
to get more convection going Thursday and again Friday. Stability
is always the big struggle with these features, but models
continue with the idea of a subtropical jet on steroids through
the end of June and into early July. It`s this 40-55 kt jet @ 250
mb that will likely triggered rounds of subsequent strong
convection Thursday and Friday.

.CLIMATE...

Monsoon outlook is published but the web site link is not
appearing.  It`s available to download at:

https://weather.gov/media/abq/Brifings/2024MonsoonOutlook.pdf

Bottom line up front: This year looks very similar to 2016.
Subtropical jet remains too strong for much low level moisture to
make it into NM more than briefly (several days) in late June
into early July. Monsoon high is forecast to get its feet in place
so to speak over/near NM during the second or third week of July.
Late July looks active with above average thunderstorm activity
remaining through much of the month of August. Southern and
eastern New Mexico are favored for above average precipitation in
September. Above average temperatures are forecast in July 2024,
with near to slightly below average temperatures in August and
near average for September. During La Nina, less thunderstorm
coverage in the tropical eastern Pacific due to cooler waters
results in less air that has to come down in the mid latitudes,
and a weaker monsoon high over NM. And yes, New Mexico`s rainy
season occurs underneath or near a heat dome of high pressure. As
a matter of fact, the monsoon high is a doldrum high emanating
from the upward vertical velocity occurring in the tropics off the
southern Mexican and Central American coasts. Elevated heat
sources in the form of relatively dark mountain slopes (mixed
conifer slopes have an albedo ~ 0.80) get thermals and
instability going with their much lower albedo compared to the
free air. Additionally, the weaker the high, the greater colliding
outflow boundaries or mini cold fronts have a chance at creating
new storms from their collisions. This is especially important for
valley and basin locations that can struggle at times to break
the subsidence inversion (temperatures warm with height near
18,000 ft. MSL) that is typical over NM in summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR prevails through the TAF period with increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds area wide this afternoon. Peak gusts of 15 to
25 kts can be expected. The exception will be near isolated
thunderstorms developing along a dryline feature banked up N-S
along the TX border late today near the 22Z to 03Z timeframe.
Frequent lightning, hail, and erratic and severe wind gusts will
accompany these thunderstorms as they move into TX. Although not
mentioned in the KTCC TAF due to low coverage and confidence of
even a vicinity mention, there is a low chance for some impacts
from a thunderstorm at KTCC today however unlikely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

A dry, windy and hotter weather pattern peaks in intensity Monday
with critical fire weather conditions favored through the western
fire weather zones and the northeastern highlands and plains. While
all areas will see minimum humidity fall to near or below 10
percent, wind speeds will be the deciding factor. Drier
southwesterly flow aloft will advance further through the eastern
plains Monday afternoon, bringing stronger wind speeds with gusts of
25 to 35 mph possible for mid to higher elevation areas including
the western fire zones bordering AZ. The strongest wind gusts of 45+
mph will focus through the Northeast Highlands fire zone. While fuel
receptivity is a question for northeastern NM given recent rainfall,
ERCs are a tad higher further west in the highlands along the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains compared to the plains closer to OK/TX. The Fire
Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the western
fire zones along the AZ border and expanded to the northeast
highlands as a result. Elevated to locally critical fire weather
remains Tuesday as dry southwesterly flow remains most areas. Wind
speeds are forecast to come down a notch however.

A significant change to the weather pattern arrives Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning in the form of a potent backdoor front
pushing through northeastern NM, meeting up with a surge of low-
level Gulf moisture from west TX. This will bring cooler
temperatures and higher humidity to the eastern half of the forecast
area, staying dry and breezy along and west of the Rio Grande Valley
Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon convection along and east of the
central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and evening will act to
push this moisture further west to the AZ border by Thursday and
Friday. This will bring an end to any critical fire weather concerns
areawide for the end of next week. Chances for afternoon
thunderstorm activity will go up markedly however.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  93  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  88  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  52  88  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  46  89  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  85  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  47  90  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  52  88  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  61  90  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  56  86  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  46  90  45  89 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  61  95  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  44  82  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  61  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  58  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  49  81  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  46  75  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  41  79  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  49  87  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  51  86  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  58  93  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  61  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  90  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  94  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  96  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  98  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  96  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  57  98  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  64  97  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  98  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  64  98  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  98  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  66  93  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  65  96  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64 101  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  87  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  61  90  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  57  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  92  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  56  88  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  57  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  58  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  95  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  57  88  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  56  92  53  90 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  56  93  55  92 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  54  88  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  66  95  66  94 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  61  92  59  90 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  66 100  66  98 /   5   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  96  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  67 100  68  97 /   5   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  68  99  67  96 /  20  20  20   5
Portales........................  68 100  68  98 /  20  20  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  67 100  66  98 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  71 106  70 104 /   0   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  62 100  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  60  99  60  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-109.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...24