092
FXUS65 KABQ 191812 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1212 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Moisture will increase from east to west across the area through
Friday due to a backdoor front and moisture from a tropical wave,
bringing increasing chances for showers and storms with the
potential for burn scar flooding. The backdoor front will bring
strong easterly winds to central NM tonight, with damaging wind
gusts possible in the Albuquerque Metro. Daytime temperatures will
trend down from the rain-cooling and cloud cover and be below
normal areawide Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will start to
rise over the weekend and be above normal by early next week.
Daily rounds of storms will continue through the weekend and into
early next week, but gradually trend down in coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A moist backdoor front will bring cooler temperatures along and east
of the central mountain chain today with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. storms will generally move toward the
north and northeast at speeds around 20-30 mph. The front will push
through gaps in the central mountain chain early this morning with a
gusty wind below canyons opening into the central valley.  Enough
moisture is forecast to reach northwest areas by this afternoon for
isolated dry thunderstorms and virga showers capable of producing
brief, localized, and erratic wind gusts to 50 mph from Mount Taylor
to the northwest mountains including northern parts of the
Albuquerque metro area.

A 30-45 kt southeasterly speed maximum at 700 mb will then
develop over central and western parts of the forecast area
tonight peaking in strength during the evening hours. Strong to
very strong surface winds will result, especially below canyons
opening into the central valleys from the east. This includes the
Santa Fe and Carrizozo areas, as well as the Jemez Mountains and
northwest highlands (Cuba), where gusts up to 55 mph are expected.
In Albuquerque, gusts to 60 mph appear likely. The forecast
challenge with these events is nailing down the precise
orientation and location of the speed max aloft, which we are only
moderately confident in at this time. If the speed maximum shifts
a little further north than currently forecast, then Albuquerque
may only receive wind speeds up to 50 mph, while Santa Fe receives
60 mph winds. If the speed max shifts a little further to the
south, then Grants may join Albuquerque with a 60 mph wind. Stay
tuned for forecast package updates and warning updates as we
continue to monitor this situation, which is expected to evolve
rapidly as we also consider the impact of convectively induce
outflow boundaries.

A broad high pressure system over the eastern US, a deepening upper
level trough on the west coast, and a tropical system tracking
westward over northern Mexico will draw rich Gulf moisture
northeastward over NM tonight through Thursday (and beyond) with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading to most of
the forecast area.  Two-day rain amounts are forecast to vary from a
0.25-1.75 inches along and east of the central mountain chain with
locally higher amounts, and up to 0.60 of an inch farther west. Rain
amounts like this can easily lead to flash flooding below recent
burn scars, so we will issue Flash Flood Watches for our recent burn
scars of the south central and Sangre de Cristo Mountains from the
middle of this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Moisture advection will continue Thursday night into Friday as
moisture associated with an easterly wave moving west across MX
gets caught up in the upper high circulation and pulled north into
NM. The NAM is particularly bullish with the PoPs and QPF late
Thursday night through Friday, but with that type of moisture
loading the atmosphere won`t get a chance to destabilize much
which could prohibit deeper convection and limit the heavy
rainfall threat. A weak Pacific trough is forecast to move east
toward the southern Rockies late Friday, bringing some needed
forcing for a round of convection across northern NM that could
persist through the night. Highs on Friday will be well below
normal most areas due to added cloud cover and rain-cooling. The
upper high will transition west into NM Saturday behind the
departing Pacific trough and gradually expand/strengthen going
into early next week, bringing a warming trend that will take
temperatures above normal areawide by Monday. Both the latest
ECMWF and GFS show 500mb heights reaching up to 595-596dam by
Tuesday. Moisture is here to stay though, so expect daily rounds
of daytime heating triggered convection with the potential for
burn scar flooding from this weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A moist backdoor cold front surged south and west thru eastern
NM into the RGV and across the Cont Divide this morning. MVFR low
stratus in the wake of the front will dissipate thru 2pm followed
by increasing coverage of SHRA/TS for the remainder of today and
tonight across central and eastern NM. This activity will move to
the northeast around 15 to 20 kt. The stronger storms will be
capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.
Another surge of east winds will enter the RGV around 7pm with
gusts of 40 to 50 kt from KABQ to KSAF until 3am. An Airport
Weather Warning has already been issued and an update will be
provided. Another round of MVFR to lcl IFR low stratus is likely
over eastern NM tonight with periods of light rain, patchy fog,
and isolated SHRA/TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A moist backdoor front will push through gaps in the central
mountain chain with a gusty east canyon wind in the central valley
today, then a strong east canyon wind from Santa Fe southward
tonight. Peak gusts are expected to reach 60 mph below Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque this evening, and up to 55 mph in Santa Fe, as
well as the Jemez Mountains and northwest highlands (including
Cuba). A monsoon-like thunderstorm pattern will develop tonight
through the end of the week as a mid level high pressure system over
the east central US, a tropical system passing to the south of the
fire weather forecast area, and a trough on the west coast all work
in consort to draw Gulf moisture over New Mexico. The heaviest rain
looks to favor northern and eastern areas tonight and Thursday, then
central and western areas Friday through early next week. Rain
amounts will trend significantly lower this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  63  91  64 /   0  10  60  60
Dulce...........................  88  50  86  52 /  20  30  50  50
Cuba............................  86  55  82  56 /  10  20  40  40
Gallup..........................  91  52  90  57 /   0   0  40  30
El Morro........................  88  56  84  58 /   0  10  30  30
Grants..........................  92  54  86  57 /   5  20  40  30
Quemado.........................  88  58  85  59 /   0  10  30  30
Magdalena.......................  89  61  81  60 /   0  30  40  60
Datil...........................  87  58  79  59 /   0  20  40  30
Reserve.........................  93  52  90  58 /   0  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  97  67  93  68 /   0  20  20  30
Chama...........................  82  47  79  50 /  20  40  60  50
Los Alamos......................  84  60  78  58 /  20  50  60  50
Pecos...........................  80  57  74  56 /  40  70  70  70
Cerro/Questa....................  80  47  77  51 /  40  50  60  30
Red River.......................  71  45  69  47 /  50  60  60  30
Angel Fire......................  73  43  72  48 /  50  60  50  40
Taos............................  84  52  81  54 /  30  50  40  40
Mora............................  77  50  73  52 /  50  80  70  60
Espanola........................  92  60  86  61 /  20  50  40  40
Santa Fe........................  84  60  77  58 /  20  60  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  87  60  81  59 /  20  50  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  65  86  64 /  10  30  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  65  88  65 /  10  20  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  65  90  65 /   5  20  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  66  88  65 /  10  20  30  40
Belen...........................  98  63  90  65 /   5  20  30  40
Bernalillo......................  96  65  89  64 /  10  20  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  97  62  90  64 /   5  20  30  40
Corrales........................  96  65  90  64 /  10  20  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  97  63  90  65 /   5  20  30  40
Placitas........................  90  64  84  63 /  10  40  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  95  65  89  64 /  10  20  30  40
Socorro......................... 100  66  91  66 /   5  20  30  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  58  79  58 /  20  40  50  50
Tijeras.........................  89  60  82  60 /  20  40  50  50
Edgewood........................  88  57  80  58 /  20  50  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  55  80  57 /  30  50  60  50
Clines Corners..................  82  55  73  55 /  40  70  60  70
Mountainair.....................  88  57  80  58 /  20  40  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  90  57  80  58 /  20  40  60  60
Carrizozo.......................  94  63  82  63 /  20  30  50  60
Ruidoso.........................  85  57  69  57 /  40  40  80  70
Capulin.........................  70  53  74  56 /  70  70  40  30
Raton...........................  76  53  77  57 /  60  60  40  30
Springer........................  79  55  79  59 /  60  80  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  79  55  72  56 /  60  90  70  70
Clayton.........................  77  60  79  61 /  60  70  20  30
Roy.............................  79  58  74  59 /  70  90  60  60
Conchas.........................  88  62  80  64 /  50  90  50  70
Santa Rosa......................  87  61  75  62 /  50  80  60  60
Tucumcari.......................  87  63  81  65 /  40  70  30  40
Clovis..........................  88  63  78  63 /  30  50  50  50
Portales........................  89  63  77  64 /  20  40  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  92  64  79  64 /  40  60  50  60
Roswell.........................  97  70  81  68 /  30  40  60  70
Picacho.........................  90  62  72  61 /  50  50  80  70
Elk.............................  90  57  70  58 /  50  50  80  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
NMZ204-211-218-225.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday
for NMZ219.

Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42