471
FXUS65 KABQ 140554 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Very hot conditions over the region today will lead to a few record
high temperatures. Clouds and sprinkles may provide some relief to a
few lucky folks through the evening but very gusty winds may occur.
A weather system will move across NM Friday with greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity will focus over
northern and eastern NM where small hail, gusty winds, brief heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes are possible. Temperatures
will be much cooler areawide. Heat will build over the region once
again beginning Saturday. The next weather system will move across
the region early next week with very dry, hot, and windy weather for
several days possible. Extremely high fire danger may occur with
this spring-like pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A stout upper level ridge is almost squarely over NM this afternoon
with soaring heights reaching near 596 decameters at 500 mb and
temperatures quickly encroaching upon record daily highs. A weak
surface trough and dryline is present over far eastern NM where some
high-based cumulus are trying to go up, but even on the moist side
of the boundary there is still very large surface dewpoint
depressions with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper
50s and low 60s. This will keep storms sparse over the far eastern
tier of NM through early evening with mainly a downburst wind threat
rather than any appreciable rainfall. Anemic cumulus are also trying
to go up over the western mountains, but are even more limited due
to lower dewpoints and a subtle subsidence temperature inversion as
seen on this mornings ABQ sounding around 450 mb.

Upstream, our upper low is currently inching toward the Tijuana
area, and should draw in some more mid level moisture and faint
divergence to western NM late tonight and into Friday morning. This
feature should lift into southern CO as a weaker open wave, but
should bring enough moisture to lead to a notable reduction in
temperatures Friday along with a healthy coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the forecast area. PWATs will rise to near 1.0
inch roughly along and east of the central mountains while western
areas peak near 0.7 to 0.9 for a brief time. Mid level flow will
increase with mean 700-500 mb layer winds ranging between 15 to 30
kt, and this should keep showers and storms moving at a brisk pace
north northeastward. This will hopefully mitigate the flash flooding
threat over the HPCC burn scar, and there are no plans of issuing a
Watch at this time. The Sangre de Cristos would likely be the area
of focus with the potential for 2-3 or more rounds of
showers/storms, but NBM QPF probabilities for greater than 0.5 inch
of rainfall are all less than 20 percent around the Sangres, so this
was another consideration. The FV3 was the lone CAM that advertises
more concerning amounts, but given its tendency to sometimes overdue
deep, moist convection, have opted to discount this as an outlier. A
couple of strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out over the
plains, mainly the northeastern zones Friday afternoon and evening.
Most of the convection would be winding down by midnight with just a
few east central counties retaining storms into early Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A weak shortwave trough passing over northeast NM Saturday morning
will lift northeast while a shortwave ridge builds in from the west.
Max temps will warm several degrees with values closer to normal for
mid June. It will be very dry once again but some afternoon clouds
and perhaps a few high-based showers may form over northeast NM.

Sunday thru Tuesday will feature an upper level trough gradually
approaching from the west. Southwest winds will trend stronger each
day with a more spring-like pattern in place by Monday and Tuesday.
Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions are expected with very
hot temps and extremely low humidity. A couple Heat Advisories may
be required as well. Fire danger may be extremely high during this
period given the hot, dry, and windy conditions after lightning
strikes possible tomorrow.

Many extended forecast models are still showing an extensive upper
level ridge building over the southern CONUS mid to late next week.
Deep-layer south to southeast flow then allows abundant moisture
to surge northwest into NM with increasing chances for showers and
storms, especially along and east of the central mt chain thru the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Generally light winds for most areas overnight, with some breezy
south winds at KTCC due to a LLJ east of the moisture boundary. An
upper level trough approaches from the west Friday morning moving
across northern NM during the day and exiting northeast NM Friday
night. Daytime heating will allow showers and storms with gusty
and erratic winds to develop across north central NM during the
late morning hours. quickly moving into northeast and east central
NM during the afternoon and evening hours. A storm to two across
northeast and east central NM could become strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts and hail being the threats along with locally
heavy rainfall. Brief MVFR visibilities and ceilings could be
possible in stronger and heavier storms across northeast and east
central NM including KCQC, KCVN and KCVS and other sites along and
north of this line. Any shower and storm activity will be winding
down and exiting into West Texas at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Widespread hot temperatures are in progress this afternoon over
northern and central NM. While some deeper low layer moisture is
present in far eastern NM, there is not much in the way of rainfall
relief expected through this evening, except in very small, isolated
eastern spots. Along with the heat comes high instability (high
Haines indices from steep temperature lapse rates and very dry air
in the lower part of the atmosphere) and also the threat for dry
lightning, as the rainfall will be so isolated. While it will be
short-lived, there is relief on the way Friday, as a Pacific low
pressure system will trek into southern CO, dragging more showers
and storms into NM. Several locations will receive measurable
rainfall, but areas that are expected to receive more than a tenth
of an inch will likely be confined to the Sangre de Cristos eastward
into nearby highlands and plains. Moderately breezy to locally windy
conditions will also prevail Friday with passing storms stirring up
stronger gusts, and this could perk up any ongoing fires in the
area. The incoming showers, storms and associated humidity will keep
critical conditions at bay on Friday, but mountains to the southwest
of our area could be dry enough to support critical fire weather.
Relief from the heat of Friday will fade quickly with rebounding
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will stay closer
to normal Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but winds will
turn stronger with much lower humidity that could lead to elevated
or critical fire weather, particularly in northeastern or eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  66  85  54 /   0  20  50  10
Dulce...........................  93  50  78  41 /   0   5  40  20
Cuba............................  96  57  77  48 /   0  10  60  20
Gallup..........................  97  54  83  46 /   5  20  60  10
El Morro........................  91  54  79  46 /  10  20  70  10
Grants..........................  93  57  80  47 /  10  20  80  20
Quemado.........................  94  56  84  49 /  10  20  60  10
Magdalena.......................  93  62  83  57 /   0  10  60  20
Datil...........................  91  58  82  51 /  10  20  60  20
Reserve.........................  98  52  90  46 /   5  20  40   5
Glenwood........................ 101  67  95  59 /   5  20  30   0
Chama...........................  88  49  72  42 /   0   5  70  20
Los Alamos......................  93  65  78  56 /   0   5  80  40
Pecos...........................  96  59  82  52 /   5   5  80  60
Cerro/Questa....................  89  51  76  45 /   5   0  80  50
Red River.......................  78  43  70  42 /   5   5  80  50
Angel Fire......................  83  35  73  35 /   5   5  80  50
Taos............................  95  54  81  46 /   0   0  70  40
Mora............................  88  53  77  47 /  10   5  90  50
Espanola........................  99  62  86  53 /   0   0  70  40
Santa Fe........................  93  64  81  54 /   0   5  80  50
Santa Fe Airport................  98  61  84  52 /   0   5  70  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  99  68  85  60 /   0   5  60  40
Albuquerque Heights............. 101  70  86  62 /   0   5  60  30
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  63  88  54 /   0   5  50  30
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101  68  86  60 /   0   5  50  30
Belen........................... 102  65  90  57 /   0  10  50  30
Bernalillo...................... 101  66  87  58 /   0   5  50  30
Bosque Farms.................... 102  62  89  53 /   0  10  50  30
Corrales........................ 101  65  87  57 /   0   5  50  30
Los Lunas....................... 103  64  89  55 /   0  10  50  30
Placitas........................  99  66  84  57 /   0   5  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  99  68  86  60 /   0   5  50  30
Socorro......................... 105  70  93  63 /   0  10  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  94  62  80  55 /   0   5  60  40
Tijeras.........................  96  64  82  56 /   0   5  60  40
Edgewood........................  95  60  82  53 /   0   5  70  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  96  56  84  49 /   0   5  70  50
Clines Corners..................  92  59  79  52 /   5   5  70  60
Mountainair.....................  95  61  84  53 /   0  10  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  94  61  86  53 /   5  10  70  50
Carrizozo....................... 101  68  91  62 /  10  10  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  94  54  83  53 /  20  10  70  50
Capulin.........................  93  55  82  51 /  20  10  80  50
Raton...........................  96  58  84  52 /  10   5  80  50
Springer........................  99  58  86  53 /  10   5  80  50
Las Vegas.......................  90  57  79  51 /  10   5  80  60
Clayton......................... 101  63  89  61 /  20  20  50  60
Roy.............................  97  61  85  57 /  20  10  70  60
Conchas......................... 104  67  93  61 /  10  10  50  70
Santa Rosa......................  98  66  88  59 /  10   5  60  60
Tucumcari....................... 102  67  93  61 /  20  20  30  70
Clovis.......................... 101  68  94  64 /  20  20  20  70
Portales........................ 100  68  95  63 /  20  20  20  60
Fort Sumner..................... 102  69  94  63 /  10  10  40  70
Roswell......................... 107  73 100  70 /  20  20  20  40
Picacho......................... 102  67  92  61 /  10  10  50  50
Elk.............................  96  64  91  57 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71