Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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916 FXUS65 KABQ 192326 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Shower and storm chances return along and east of the central mountain chain Friday as moisture gets pulled north ahead of a storm over southern California. A few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out. The storm and associated cold front move through the state Saturday with strong to severe storms possible across eastern NM ahead of the front. Western and central areas will be generally dry and windy with cooler temperatures on Saturday behind the cold front. Dry and cool areawide Sunday and Monday behind the storm. Rain and storm chances possibly return for northern and eastern areas Tuesday and most areas Wednesday, but forecast confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A 593dm H5 high center is positioned over the Big Bend region while an unseasonably strong 566dm low enters SoCal. A very dry mid and upper level airmass remains focused across NM today between these two features. Low level return flow over southeast NM has allowed surface dewpoints to remain in the 50s and 60s. Impressive moisture advection will take place tonight as the H5 low moves in from the west and a high PWAT airmass surges quickly north from the Gulf of California. Low level moisture will also deepen toward the north and west overnight. Model PWATs increase to near 0.75" at KABQ and 1.3" at KROW by Friday morning. Large scale ascent ahead of a 90-100kt speed max with improving diffluence aloft will convert this moisture to some sprinkles and a few rain showers over the southern high terrain before sunrise Friday. Convective coverage will increase thru the day along and east of the central mt chain. Models are in very good agreement with surface-based CAPE btwn 500-1000 J/kg, lifted indices from -2 to -4, and strong bulk shear of 45-55kt. A couple storms may be strong to perhaps severe in this environment. The 12Z HREF joint severe wx parameters indicate the area along the central highlands from Corona to Pecos will have the higher chances of strong storms. The flash flood threat will be limited to areas where storms train repeatedly over the same area given storm motions around 30 mph. The latest HREF max 24-hr QPF Friday has a few strips of >1.5" and the NBM probability for >0.50" is over 20% in a few of these same areas. Confidence on a Flash Flood Watch for wildfire burn scars is too low at this time given the higher chances for storms is just immediately to the east. If models trend farther west tonight then a watch may be warranted. Storm coverage will likely decrease Friday night but a couple showers and storms are still possible thru Saturday morning. Temps will trend 5 to 10F above normal with all the cloud cover and moisture in place Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The upper low mentioned in the short term will be over northern AZ moving northeast over central Colorado by Saturday night. Some showers will be possible across northwest and north central NM through the mid afternoon due to some mid level moisture under the circulation, but much drier air will be quickly surging north and east along the southern part of the upper low and behind the Pacific cold front. Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees across western and central NM on Saturday behind the Pacific front with dry conditions and gusty southwest to west winds. The bigger story will be across eastern NM where the Pacific front along with positive CVA ahead of the upper low circulation will result in the development of more showers and storms late Saturday morning with fast storm motion to the northeast. Showers and storms across eastern NM will be capable of becoming strong to severe due to high surface moisture, MLCAPE values as high as 2500 J/kg along the front, and effective bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. Main hazards will be large hail with discrete cells turning more into a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale and coalesce into a line. Storms should exit north and east of the state during the mid to late evening hours. Drier air, lighter winds, and CAA behind the system will allow for effective radiational cooling Saturday night into Sunday morning with mountain valley locations likely getting below freezing, mid 30s to near 40 across northern and western valley locations, 40s to around 50 in the middle and lower RGV and 50s across eastern NM. A backdoor front will push through eastern NM behind the upper low Sunday morning. Sunday will be dry with below average temperatures areawide. It will feel like the first day of fall with 60s to low 70s across northern and western NM and upper 70s to low 80s across the middle and lower RGV and southeast NM. A light east canyon wind could be possible in the ABQ Metro Sunday night as the backdoor front tries to seep through the central mountain chain. Monday will be another dry day with slightly milder temperatures for most areas outside of southeast NM. Return flow begins to set up across eastern NM increasing surface moisture slightly. High forecast uncertainty remains for Tuesday and Wednesday due to deterministic and ensemble guidance differing in the evolution and track of an upper level trough/low diving south across the Rockies. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF dive the trough south and west over the Four Corners Tuesday before cutting off from the northern jet into a closed low over northern AZ Wednesday morning. However, the ensemble guidance clusters differ with an upper level ridge centered a little more east over Pacific NW and Great Basin Tuesday and the upper level trough over the northern Rockies more progressive and not as deep moving south and east over the central Great Plains on Tuesday. The further south and west this trough digs the better rain and storm chances will be for the state, especially for northern and eastern areas. If the deterministic GFS and ECMWF pan out, a strong east canyon wind event is in the cards for the ABQ Metro Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR prevails this evening before abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico advances northward through eastern and central NM Friday morning. Broken to overcast ceilings 060-120 will result with showers developing over the highlands west and northwest of KROW. This shower activity will spread northward toward KSAF and KLVS by the late morning and early afternoon and toward the east to KROW and KTCC during the afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible, and one or two of those could become strong to severe with severe wind gusts being the main threat. Drier prevailing southerly to southwesterly winds will be the rule along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for at least the next 7 days. Western NM will remain dry and breezy with above normal temperatures thru Friday then a cooldown arrives Saturday. Moisture will return to central and eastern NM Friday with greater coverage of showers and storms. Storm motions will be swift toward the north with locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Flash flooding is possible on wildfire burn scars however confidence is low given the fast storm motion. Storms will need to train repeatedly for flooding to occur. Cooler temperatures will arrive over eastern NM Sunday with a backdoor cold front. The weather pattern next week still looks highly uncertain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 82 52 72 / 0 0 5 30 Dulce........................... 39 79 43 74 / 0 10 10 50 Cuba............................ 47 78 50 73 / 0 10 10 30 Gallup.......................... 40 81 42 70 / 0 0 0 30 El Morro........................ 47 78 45 69 / 0 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 43 82 43 74 / 0 5 0 20 Quemado......................... 46 79 45 71 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 56 80 56 77 / 5 10 10 5 Datil........................... 48 78 48 72 / 0 5 5 5 Reserve......................... 44 81 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 85 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 72 44 67 / 0 10 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 55 77 56 72 / 0 20 20 40 Pecos........................... 49 74 53 71 / 0 40 30 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 73 49 68 / 0 20 20 60 Red River....................... 42 65 43 59 / 0 20 20 70 Angel Fire...................... 32 68 39 63 / 0 30 20 70 Taos............................ 42 76 47 72 / 0 20 20 50 Mora............................ 45 74 47 68 / 0 40 30 60 Espanola........................ 50 83 54 79 / 0 20 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 53 77 56 74 / 0 30 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 81 55 78 / 0 20 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 85 62 81 / 5 20 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 87 61 82 / 5 10 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 89 60 84 / 5 10 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 87 61 82 / 0 10 20 20 Belen........................... 54 89 59 85 / 5 10 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 56 88 59 83 / 0 10 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 54 88 58 84 / 5 10 10 10 Corrales........................ 54 88 60 83 / 0 10 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 53 88 59 85 / 5 10 10 10 Placitas........................ 58 85 59 81 / 0 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 57 87 60 83 / 0 10 20 20 Socorro......................... 61 91 62 87 / 5 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 78 54 75 / 0 20 20 30 Tijeras......................... 56 81 56 79 / 0 20 20 30 Edgewood........................ 53 80 52 79 / 5 30 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 80 51 80 / 5 30 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 52 75 52 76 / 5 40 30 40 Mountainair..................... 56 79 54 78 / 5 30 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 52 78 55 78 / 5 30 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 61 84 61 81 / 5 40 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 55 76 56 74 / 5 50 40 20 Capulin......................... 51 77 53 69 / 5 30 20 80 Raton........................... 46 80 51 71 / 0 30 10 80 Springer........................ 46 80 51 74 / 0 30 20 80 Las Vegas....................... 49 76 51 72 / 0 50 30 60 Clayton......................... 60 84 61 74 / 5 30 20 80 Roy............................. 55 78 56 71 / 0 40 40 80 Conchas......................... 57 84 61 81 / 5 40 50 80 Santa Rosa...................... 57 79 59 79 / 5 50 50 60 Tucumcari....................... 58 87 62 81 / 5 30 40 80 Clovis.......................... 64 92 65 85 / 10 20 20 60 Portales........................ 63 93 65 86 / 10 10 10 60 Fort Sumner..................... 59 87 62 84 / 5 40 40 50 Roswell......................... 69 95 70 93 / 5 20 20 20 Picacho......................... 60 88 61 86 / 5 40 20 20 Elk............................. 58 87 58 84 / 5 40 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...24