254
FXUS65 KABQ 240813
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
213 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mostly dry and tranquil conditions are forecast through the rest
of the week as a ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the
atmosphere dominates the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm
each day today, Wednesday and Thursday. Readings will reach 5 to
10 degrees above average in most of western and central New Mexico
by Thursday with eastern areas running just a couple to a few
degrees above. This will mean some western and central New Mexico
locations will be close to record highs on Thursday with only
small day-to-day temperature changes into Friday and the weekend.
Mostly light to moderate breezes are forecast through the week
too, but some gusty winds will spill into northeastern New Mexico
Tuesday afternoon and then through the gaps and canyons of the
central mountain chain Tuesday evening when gusts may reach 20 to
30 mph for a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Pleasant weather is expected again today across the Land of
Enchantment. There remains a very low chance (<10%) of patchy fog
development this morning across the lower Pecos River Valley.
Dewpoint depressions will continue to plummet the next few hours,
approaching 0F right around sunrise. Very light south to southwest
winds in the area should prevent fog from far southeastern NM making
it northward into the forecast area. The ridge currently over The
Great Basin will quickly shift eastward over New Mexico today,
allowing temps to warm a few to several degrees from yesterday`s
highs everywhere except for the far northeast where highs will be
similar thanks to a backdoor front intrusion. The front will
struggle on its journey south and westward this afternoon, reaching
the central mtn chain by the evening. Briefly breezy east winds are
likely in Albuquerque with no impacts expected. Models continue to
trend drier in the south-central mtns this afternoon, with even
sprinkles appearing unlikely now. The probability of fog development
tomorrow morning will be very low again (<10%), but is possible in
the Estancia Basin where humidity should approach 100% around
sunrise.

Wednesday will be dry again with the 500-mb ridge parked over north-
central NM. Temps will generally rise a degree or two from Tuesday`s
highs, except across the southeast where they will be a few degrees
cooler in the wake of the backdoor front. Sunny skies prevail across
the entire forecast area, making it a nice day to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The upper level ridge will continue to reign over NM on Thursday
with central heights staying around 589-591 decameters at 500 mb.
Meanwhile the inland upper level low would be expected to be
centered over AR while the potential tropical cyclone moves toward
FL/GA. Surface high pressure would start nudging westward across
the southern plains, just easing into far eastern NM late Thursday
afternoon. Dry conditions and a light wind field aloft will keep
the uneventful and tranquil conditions going Thursday with
temperatures reaching somewhat of a plateau this day. Record highs
of 88F at Farmington (former record 88F in 2015) and 87F at
Gallup (former record of 86F in 2020) are forecast for Thursday
with many other western and central zones encroaching upon daily
record highs.

On Friday the upper ridge is forecast to retrograde a bit
westward over the Four Corners states. This will keep temperatures
reaching above average in most western and central locations
(generally by 5 to 10 degrees with more near-record values), but
some modest cooling could occur in eastern zones as surface high
pressure builds in. This will be in response to the inland low
that will still be near AR on the MS river with the feature having
ingested the remnants of the land falling tropical system. This
easterly push into eastern NM would potentially shove a gusty gap
wind into vulnerable central NM locations Friday evening. Another
more subtle feature aloft to watch for will be a weak shortwave
trough that could drop southward on the eastern periphery of the
ridge Friday. While this shortwave looks weaker than earlier model
run depictions, it could slide southward out of CO and spread mid
level moisture into NM. Looking at forecast soundings, this
moisture advection could lead to high-based afternoon cumulus,
mostly over the mountains and adjacent highlands where weak virga
showers could be observed. While no measurable rainfall would be
expected, localized gusty winds could develop beneath this
activity as evaporative cooling ensues.

The ridge hangs around western NM and AZ into the weekend and
early next week, not losing much strength. Sufficient mid level
moisture looks to linger through this time for more afternoon
high-based cumulus and possible virga showers. Aside from the
virga threat, light to moderate breezes would prevail in most
locations, and the warmer than average temperatures will persist,
especially in western and central zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
however there is a low chance (~10%) that patchy fog develops
along the lower Pecos River Valley near KROW around sunrise this
morning. A backdoor front will enter this northeast between 15Z
and 18Z this morning, pushing south and west through the
afternoon. Briefly gusty winds are possible through the gaps of
the central mountain chain between 03Z and 09Z Monday night, but
winds should remain well-below AWW criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next 7
days. A weak backdoor cold front will invade from the east today.
Briefly gusty winds are possible with its passage, but the front
will wash out once it reaches the Rio Grande Valley. Ridging shifts
overhead the next couple days, surging temps well-above seasonal
averages. Dry weather with light winds and above average temps stick
around through the end of the workweek. Another backdoor front on
Friday could bring enough moisture to produce isolated gusty virga
showers and storms over the high terrain Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  79  38  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  78  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  81  41  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  77  48  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  80  42  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  79  45  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  78  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  84  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  87  57  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  76  52  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  76  47  78  49 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  72  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  63  39  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  69  26  72  25 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  76  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  41  76  44 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  83  46  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  77  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  81  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  53  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  49  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  50  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  45  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  49  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  82  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  84  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  79  50  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  44  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  39  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  76  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  79  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  80  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  83  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  48  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  71  43  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  79  42  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  76  42  77  46 /   5   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  77  46  77  50 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  50  83  53 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  87  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  86  51  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  92  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  52  81  55 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  50  78  52 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16