989
FXUS63 KABR 280538 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the region east of
  the Missouri River late this afternoon through the overnight
  hours. No severe weather is expected.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A 20-40% chance of precipitation exists Wednesday night, and a
  45-80% chance exists on Thursday. Beyond that, a general 20 to
  40% chance of rain remains in the forecast for Friday through
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 814 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Minor updates with respect to coverage of showers and weak
thunderstorms. Right now its fairly isolated as cells weaken,
however there remains upstream activity associated with the
northwest flow shortwave in North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

One upper level shortwave trough is beginning to exit the region to
the east this afternoon, but will see another drop in from the north
later tonight before tracking east of the region early Tuesday
morning. Ridging will build over the central part of the country
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

At the surface, a frontal boundary currently over the eastern CWA
has combined with the some weak instability and the first upper
level wave to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect
some lightning to be the main threat with the storms, and they
should dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Will likely see another area of showers, and maybe a few
thunderstorms, track across the central and eastern overnight in
association the second upper level shortwave. High pressure will
then drop in over the region, bringing a return to dry conditions
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Wednesday morning we continue to have an upper level ridge over the
region. Models have sped things up a little and have the low start
to move into the area on Thursday. This low will continue to affect
the region through the day Saturday. There looks to be a very slight
shortwave in the overall westerly flow pattern on Sunday. Otherwise,
a ridge starts to move toward the region at the end of the period.

Wednesday has a chance for some rain and storms. Storms in the
afternoon/evening will most likely be west of the Missouri River, as
the cold front from the Thursday low (still in southern Canada)
stretches east into the area and becomes a stationary front.
Thursday afternoon/evening, storms would be possible mostly east of
the Missouri as the cold front continues to move east during the
day. The NBM shows slight to chance PoPs through the overnight
Wednesday night and continues PoPs into Friday morning. However,
storms are unlikely to continue several hours after sunset. With the
possible shortwave on Sunday, there is a chance for another round of
showers and storms. Details are few as this is 6 days out.

Temperatures throughout the period will be around normal. Days with
rain chances will be slightly cooler, but expect highs generally in
the mid 70s to around 80. The end of the period gets a little warmer
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds also aren`t expected to be
an issue except some possibly 35+ mph gusts Wednesday in west river
counties as a result of the cold/stationary front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. There are a few light showers out
there but probability for these to occur at any particular station
is low. However, did include a prevailing mention of VCSH at KABR
and KATY during the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond