Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
763 FXUS63 KABR 071754 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected through tonight. Threat for severe weather is very low. 15-20% chance of light rain returns Sunday with chances increasing Monday night into Tuesday (20-35%). - Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 We continue to see elevated convection and rain along and south of highway 14 this morning, though the tail end is starting to clear western Stanley/Jones counties. CAMS still show some storm development along and south of I90 but this is almost exclusively developing south of the CWA. Focus then shifts to the north where we are already seeing the development of some Altocumulus with weak returns. Very little instability associated with this northwest flow wave, however shear is 50-60kts. Profiles don`t really hint at much of an environment for thunderstorms, however both the HRRR and high res NAM show some convective cell development. Added additional POPs up in this area in line with the latest SPC update. Updated aviation discussion below... && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Warm air advection off a weak Colorado low coupled with shortwaves in the upper ridge will generate some showers and thunderstorms mainly south of Hwy 212 this morning. By this evening, the upper ridge begins to collapse, and more ample shortwave energy moves in from the north in a digging trough. That will fill in scattered showers and thunderstorms in the northern and eastern cwa. Generally, amounts are expected to be light at less than a quarter inch, and no severe storms are anticipated. Sfc high pressure builds in for Saturday keeping the area dry through the afternoon with seasonable temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins with an upper level trough crossing the region, bringing a 20-30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Depending on deterministic model used, the trough may produce robust rainfall, or remain north of the CWA with dry conditions possible. The latest rendition of the NBM suggests some pcpn, but a slightly lower potential. A long wave trough may cross region from west to east Monday night through Tuesday, with the NBM indicating 20 to 35 percent chance of pcpn. Weak ridging to nearly zonal flow develops Wednesday through Thursday with a period of mostly dry conditions with perhaps above average temperatures. The probability of seeing 85 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday is 30-80 percent over much of the CWA. The above average temps may continue into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. Low potential for thunderstorms to affect the KMBG terminal late this afternoon, weakening as they get towards the other terminals (and thus just a VCTS mention tonight). && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Connelly