614
FXAK69 PAFG 070016
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
416 PM AKDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today has certainly been more benign than yesterday with
decreased thermal instability across the interior as we have had
more cloud cover today and showers this morning. As of this
afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed over the central, east-central, and
southeastern Interior Alaska some with some quick heavy downpours,
lightning, and gusty winds. The thunderstorm risk continues
through that region into Friday with progressively diminishing
intensity and coverage. Southerly winds should potentially gust up
to around 40 mph through tonight in the eastern Alaska Range
north of Trims camp due to a tighter south to north pressure
gradient packing. High temperatures over the weekend could
approach 80 degrees, especially for the central and eastern
Interior, during our dry and sunny period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Analysis...At the upper levels, a closed low poised just south of
the Aleutians will meander and send 1 more weak shortwave trough
our way that will continue to push northwestward through our AOR,
impacting the west coast and areas around the Brooks Range late
tonight into Friday morning. For the weekend, higher pressure will
build in over the region. At the SFC, higher pressure will build
in from the south into Friday, which will be responsible for that
tightened pressure gradient, giving the southeast Interior gusty
winds, and the weak trough of low pressure will continue to
weaken, pushing off the northwest coast, and getting absorbed into
the overall synoptic flow pattern.

Central and Eastern Interior...
We are having a more benign day in terms of thunderstorm activity
across the region. A shortwave trough is continuing to push
through the area, and it has some instability to work with given
what can be seen in the morning soundings and model forecast
soundings, but CAPE and LI values arent as conducive to severe
thunderstorm development today as they were yesterday, even with
the help of the trough boundary pushing through. We also have had
more cloud cover today and showers this morning than yesterday,
which have kept temperatures cooler and conditions less unstable.
So, scattered showers with isolated non-severe thunderstorms are
occurring and are expected to diminish in coverage and strength
into tomorrow. These storms may contain appreciable lightning,
brief heavy rain, and gusty winds. An appreciable drying trend
begins tomorrow and lasts through the weekend with high
temperatures reaching around 80 degrees for some areas over the
weekend. Red flag conditions are likely for the lower elevations,
especially for Saturday, for the Eastern and Central Interior as
we will also have breezy conditions over the area and RH values of
around 20%.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The shortwave trough positioned over the western Interior will
continue to weaken while pushing northwestward while helping to
trigger some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into
Friday morning, after which things dry out. A few showers will
linger for the western Interior and near the West Coast into
Friday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Once again, fog and low stratus will remain as general onshore
flow continues through tonight from the sea ice, which will keep
temps lowered to near their dewpoints. High temperatures will
range from around 40 along the coast and reaching into the 60s in
the Brooks Range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
for the eastern Brooks Range through tonight. Friday will be more
benign with showers becoming more isolated as the shortwave
drifts northwestward away from the region Friday night. Southerly
flow begins Friday evening, which will work to erode cloud cover
near North Slope coastal areas, which will allow temperatures to
rise well into the 40s Saturday. Onshore flow returns for Saturday
night, giving much the same conditions as tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A less active day today in terms of thunderstorms, but there is
still some instability across the Interior, which is producing
scattered showers and isolated wet thunderstorms. On Friday, the
precipitation becomes much more isolated in nature. RH will remain
above 25% through Friday. Temperatures will also remain
cooler(generally in the 60s and lowers 70s) than the last couple
days through Friday across the Interior. Much warmer and drier
conditions are expected over the weekend. Red flag conditions are
likely at the lower elevations, especially for Saturday, across
the Eastern and Central Interior as we will be drying out, have
high temperatures around 80, RH values of around 20%, and have
breezy conditions. The western interior will see isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Friday from the final and
weakest shortwave trough starting the drying trend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North
Slope area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt,
giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and
Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. There are some ice jams
present on the Colville, which will enhance any flooding threat.
Water levels are expected to crest by the end of this week into
the weekend. The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding
very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to
indicate plenty of snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As
temperatures continue to warm over the next few days, snowmelt
could lead to continued high water for streams in that area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.
&&

$$