783
FXUS61 KAKQ 180200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1000 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly lift west to northwest along the
border of South Carolina and North Carolina this afternoon. The
system will continue to gradually weaken through Wednesday. Rain
showers expected through tonight, with the pattern remaining
unsettled Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for southside Hampton Roads as
  an area of heavy rain immediately off the coast has the
  potential to pivot onshore over the next few hours.

- The Flood Warning is in effect for portions of Currituck
  County as over 10 inches of rain fell near Corolla.

GOES water vapor channels depict the remnant of PTC 8 centered
near the GA/NC/SC border this evening. At the surface, 1022mb
high pressure is centered off the New England coast, with a
stationary boundary near the VA/NC border. Any area of heavy
rain remains anchored immediately offshore of VA Beach and
Outer Banks Currituck. There is some potential that this could
pivot onshore during the next few hours, so the flood watch will
continue through 1 AM for southside Hampton Roads. Very heavy
rain fell across portions of Currituck County, with in excess of
10 inches at Corolla. All Flash Flood Warnings have expired,
but a Flood Warning has been issued as standing water lingers,
especially around Corolla. Otherwise, scattered showers continue
and the flood threat has diminished. Warm and humid with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Later on this evening and overnight showers will continue to
taper off. Winds across northeastern North carolina and
southeastern Virginia will become calm this evening. With calm
winds and an abundance of residual moisture patch fog is
expected across that region tonight and into the mid morning
hours of tomorrow. Visibility could drop to 1-2SM with isolated
heavier patches of fog that could potentially drop visibility to
less than 1SM. Visibility should improve by the late to mid
morning hours tomorrow. Temperatures for tonight will remain
mild as clouds prevent temperatures to cool down. Lows are
forecasted to be in the middle to upper 60s inland and lower 70s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled conditions Wednesday into Thursday with an
upper low lingering near the region.

- A backdoor cold front drops southeast across the local area on
Friday.

No big changes within the short term forecast. Shower chances
will continue both Wednesday and Thursday. However, Pops will
decrease during these days. An upper low gradually stalls south
of the area on Wednesday and gradually drift off to the
northeast on Thursday. With this system lingering Pops will
remain in the forecast. Wednesday the showers will be more
isolated to scattered in nature than widespread (best potential
across the western half of the area). With on shore continuing
for the week expect widespread cloud cover to continue to keep
temperatures cool (especially across the northwest) with highs
expected to range from the lower 70s NW to the lower 80s SE.
Cool and cloudy conditions continue on Thursday with decreasing
cloud cover late. Highs on Thursday will generally be in the mid
to upper 70s. A weak backdoor cold front will push SE across
the region during the day Friday, which will bring a slight
chance for an afternoon shower. Highs on Friday will range from
the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier, cooler weather arrives this weekend into early next week.

Aloft, a tall upper level ridge builds well into Canada and
Greenland with an upper level trough along the East Coast this
weekend into early next week. At the surface, low pressure lingers
off the Mid Atlantic coastline through the weekend, gradually
shifting south Sun into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure
remains centered in Quebec through Sat before dropping south into
New England by Mon. As the high pressure builds south, it will push
a backdoor cold front across the area Sat with cooler, drier weather
expected this weekend (especially Sun) into early next week.
However, given the low off the coast, coastal areas can expect
breezy conditions with gusts to 25-30 mph this weekend into Mon
along with greater cloud cover and humidity. Additionally, cannot
rule out a few isolated showers along the coast (15-25% PoPs).

Highs range from the mid-upper 70s to around 80F (across the
piedmont) Sat, mid 70s Sun and Mon, and mid-upper 70s Tue. Lows
range from the upper 50s (Piedmont) to mid 60s (coast) Fri night,
mid-upper 50s (Piedmont) to low-mid 60s (coast) Sat night, mid 50s
(Piedmont) to lower 60s (coast) Sun and Mon nights, and upper 50s
(Piedmont) to mid 60s (coast) Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Tuesday...

1022mb high pressure was centered off the New England coast as
of 00z. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary was centered near the
VA/NC border. IFR cigs were observed at RIC, ORF, and PHF, MVFR
at SBY, and VFR at ECG. IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to develop at
the TAF sites overnight, primarily along and N of the boundary,
which should gradually sink S overnight as weak low pressure
develops off the NC Outer Banks. Vsby is expected to fall
overnight and generally range from 2-4sm in DZ/BR. Cigs slowly
lift to MVFR later Wednesday morning, and are forecast to remain
MVFR into Wednesday aftn. Occasional showers will continue
overnight into Wednesday morning, with a chc of showers/tstms
Wednesday aftn, especially inland and away from the coast. The
wind is mainly NE 8-12kt as of 00z, with some gusts to ~20kt
along the coast. The wind should become NE 5-10kt overnight and
N to NE 5-10kt Wednesday.

IFR/MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning with low cigs and reduced vsby. Unsettled
conditions continue Thursday and Friday, but confidence in the
timing and extent of any flight restrictions remains low.
Gradually improving conditions are expected Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and lower James River area this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories linger into tomorrow for the coastal
  waters due to elevated seas.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions appears
  increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

Latest sfc analysis shows an area of 1024+ mb high pressure to
centered to the north over New England. To the SW, the weakening
remnants of PTC 8 continues to meander over the Carolinas. The
tight pressure gradient between these features has allowed for
elevated winds and waves to continue this afternoon. Latest obs
reflect easterly winds of 15-20kt with a few gusts into the
20-25 kt range, mainly in the lower bay and lower James River.
Seas are slowly subsiding as well, but are still up around
6-7ft, with waves 3-5ft, highest in the lower bay.

The sfc low will continue to meander to our SW through tonight,
allowing the pressure gradient to slowly relax and winds to
gradually improve from S to N through the night. Winds should
decrease further late this evening and overnight, as a weak
area of secondary low pressure passes over the coast overnight.
Winds diminish to 10-15kt overnight, which will continue
through Wednesday. Seas should also improve through Wed, but
the onshore wind and E-NE swell (8-10 second) will make this
improvement gradual. SCA has been allowed to drop over the
sound and upper rivers, and will extend into late this evening
over the Bay and lower James River. Seas will linger in the 4-6
ft range over southern waters through tonight then slowly
subside from south to north through the day tomorrow. We`ve made
only minor adjustments to SCAs there accordingly.

The coastal low then exits to the NE as high pressure builds in
from the NW. Winds veer around to the N/NW for Thu-Fri at
~10kt, and it appears that we should get a couple of days of
sub- SCA conditions in to the end work week. Seas will be
3-4ft, waves 1-2ft. However, conditions become unsettled once
again with another protracted round of SCAs appear increasingly
likely over the weekend due to the re-tightening of the sfc
pressure gradient between high pressure pushing in from the NNE
and low pressure retrograding south just offshore. This will
result in re-building NNE winds over the weekend, with seas
quickly building to 5-8 ft, driven largely by renewed E-NE
swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase through this
evening with the approach of the next full moon. Higher astro
tides along with prolonged onshore flow will lead to nuisance to
low- end minor tidal flooding across much of the area along the
bay and tidal rivers tonight. Have issued a round of CF
Advisories for the upcoming high tide cycle tonight for much of
the bay, VA eastern shore, and adjacent tributaries. Tide
levels have so far remained below flood thresholds on the
eastern shore, but with the upcoming astronomically higher tide
cycle and given the slight upward trend, have issued a CF
statement over the bay side of the lower MD eastern shore.

Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be
needed through the end of the week and into the weekend due to
extended periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. So far,
moderate flooding is not expected through Friday. However, a
building flood tide Saturday into Saturday night does bring the
potential for tide levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood
Thresholds (best chances northern coastal zones and lower bay)
for tide cycles over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ076-078-
     085-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-
     086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525.
     Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095-097-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...AJZ/HET
SHORT TERM...AJB/HET
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ