Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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356 FXUS61 KAKQ 240736 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly crosses the area today and there is a chance for showers or storms through this afternoon. Drier weather returns tonight into Tuesday, but humidity and temperatures increase yet again for Wednesday. Another cold front approaches the region later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Not as hot today. Humidity levels will decrease through the day. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop over far southeast VA and northeast NC late this morning into the afternoon. 994 mb low pressure is located over far northern New England this morning. The associated cold front extends SSW through the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Locally, the front is is approaching our western CWA border and scattered shower activity is noted along and ahead of it. Elsewhere, scattered showers and embedded storms are occurring over SE VA. With a moderately unstable air mass in place (along with elevated downdraft instability/DCAPE), locally strong/gusty winds remain possible in any quick-moving storm cluster. There also appears to be another reservoir of locally higher instability from the Northern Neck eastward onto the Eastern Shore and CAM output suggests potential convective growth here closer to sunrise here. A locally strong storm also cannot be ruled out. The front will progress SE through the area through this morning and will located over the far SE by the afternoon hours. Despite the frontal passage, temps will still increase to hot levels, with temps in the upper 80s-lower 90s by the late morning and early afternoon. However, dew points will drop off considerably behind the front and it will feel much better across the Piedmont and N/NE portions of the area. Along and ahead of the front, moderate-strong instability is forecast to develop given the presence of a moist/hot airmass. CAMs show numerous storms developing by noon or 1 PM across far SE VA/NE NC, with storms progressing S through the rest of the afternoon. Will maintain the highest PoPs in these areas and have introduced categorical (80%) PoPs in coastal NE NC and along the Albemarle Sound. While shear remains on the weak side (~20 kt), soundings show very steep low- level lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg, and moderately high DCAPE. This suggests the potential for damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail. An isolated supercell could also develop given any favorable storm or boundary interaction. SPC has maintained the marginal risk for svr wx across NE NC. Otherwise, frequent lightning and heavy rain are expected in any storm. QPF will limited to those who see storms, but could reach 1-2"+ in spots per the 00z HREF. The dry conditions of late should mitigate any widespread flash flooding concerns. Expect storms to be S of the area by the early evening (6-8 PM). Comfortable wx tonight with lower humidity and lows in the mid-upper 60s, with upper 50s or lower 60s possible in rural locations across interior NC and VA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Remaining hot Tuesday, though humidity levels will be comfortable. - Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed 100 F again. Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day. High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the N/NW late in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with shower and storm potential with this feature, especially in the later afternoon and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus over northern and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could approach strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability and increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Shower/storm chances linger into the overnight period with temps generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front later Wednesday and Thursday. - Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area. The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible during the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields across the S suggest a lower threat. Per collaboration with neighboring offices to our S, have introduced likely PoPs in NE NC. High temps Thursday generally in the upper 80s to around 90 F. High pressure will situate N of the area behind the front Friday, shifting offshore by the weekend. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the far SW Piedmont, but most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot weather is expected for the weekend as an upper-level dome of high pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The ridge retreats W as a trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday, bringing a cold front through the area. Scattered showers and storms are thus possible Sunday ahead of this front. Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the extended period suggests continued dry conditions and potential drought development or expansion. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Monday... Areas of convection with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning are moving eastward across SE VA as of 6z this morning. Brief degraded flight conditions in the near term are most likely at PHF and possible at ORF. Otherwise, the potential for widely scattered showers or an isolated storm continues through this morning. SSW winds of 10-15 kt (w/ gusts ~20 kt) continue across area terminals through most of this morning. After 9z, guidance hints at some higher coverage of precip toward SBY, w/ perhaps an embedded storm as well. Additionally, some MVFR CIGs will be possible at the southeastern TAF sites as we approach sunrise, with the best chance at ECG. Scattered to numerous showers and storms return late this morning into this afternoon, mainly focused along coastal terminals with some localized sub- VFR conditions possible. A few storms could be on the strong to severe side. Winds flip around to the NW in the later morning and afternoon today in the wake of the front. Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected Monday night through midweek. The next chance for widely scattered showers and storms is Wed aftn. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... - Small Craft Advisories end this morning for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and the coastal Atlantic. - Benign marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday. - Modest southerly flow returns midweek. Low pressure is centered over northern New England early this morning, with a trailing and weakening cold front approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast from the NW. The wind remains SW 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt for most of the marine area aside from the upper rivers. Seas range from 3-5ft S to 5-7ft N, with waves in the Ches. Bay 2-4ft. SCAs have been extended to 7 AM for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound, and continue through 10 AM for the coastal Atlantic. The cold front pushes offshore this morning into this evening as weak high pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind the front but not much cooler. The wind will shift to NW 10-15kt across the northern tier of the area later this morning. In vicinity of the coasts of SE VA/NE NC, the wind will initially be WSW early Monday, and then become light and locally variable in the aftn as the front stalls. By tonight, the wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most of the marine area, and 10-15kt offshore N of Parramore Is. The front washes out in vicinity of the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday with very weak flow expected through early-mid aftn Tuesday. High pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of the week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning, generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt and strongest late aftn and evening Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft N midweek and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow. Another weakening cold front pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt as of this forecast cycle. && .CLIMATE... A record high min temp was set 78 was set at Richmond yesterday (6/23) and a record high max temp of 99 for the date was tied at Norfolk. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...AJB/SW LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...MAM/SW MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...