645
FXUS61 KAKQ 161907
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and mainly dry pattern then looks to take hold for
much of the week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mild and comfortable tonight. Some increasing clouds possible
  overnight west of I-95.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb high pressure centered over
Long Island and southern New England, as developing low
pressure lifts across the northern plains into the upper Great
Lakes. A warm front extends SSW from this system across the Ohio
Valley and into the western Carolinas. Aloft, troughing across
the eastern Plains states gives way to ridging building into the
region from the Carolinas. A few showers in the foothills to
the W/SW in association with some weak convergence along and
ahead of the approaching warm front. Given the dry airmass and
weak steering flow, no expectations that any of those showers
will be able to make the trip NE into our area.

Dry and warm again across the region today with upper ridging
lifting NE into the Carolinas by this afternoon. Temperatures at
18z were in the low to mid 80s inland, upper 70s to low 80s long
the coast. We still look to be on track for highs in the mid to
upper 80s inland with onshore flow keeping temps near the coast
in the low 80s. Mainly clear skies to start tonight. Could see
some increasing clouds late tonight across the VA piedmont.
Otherwise, dry with comfortable humidity levels and early
morning low temps in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend continues Monday and Tuesday, but with manageable
  humidity levels.

Center of surface high pressure moves offshore of the New
England coast for Monday, but continues to ridge W-SW into the
region. Resultant onshore (SSE) flow across the area therefore
persists, keeping coastal communities a bit cooler with warmest
readings over NW portions of the area. Meanwhile, the main
weather story for the first half of the week will be the
anomalously strong upper heat ridge that continues to build
over the mid-Atlantic region. No major change in thinking for
temps. Surface ridge offshore should keep temperatures near or
just above climo normals. Model thickness values/MOS guidance
remain in good alignment, with expected highs in the mid 80s
along the coast to around 90 degrees for inland areas. Early
morning low temps fall into the mid to upper 60s.

H5 heights rise to ~596 dam Tuesday. Again, the warmest temps
are forecast from the Richmond metro north. Afternoon dew points
remain in the 60s with relative higher values across the N and
NW portions of the area, resulting in heat indices in the mid
90s. The core of the upper ridge will lift north of the area
Tuesday evening with low temps again in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather likely persists through the work
  week. However, humidity levels remain in check through much of
  the week.

- Hottest days look to be Friday through next weekend, with
  humidity also recovering closer to seasonal levels during that
  same period.

Main weather story for the latter half of the week will be the
slowly building very warm/hot temperatures and dry conditions
across the region from late week, culminating in the warmest
part of the week next weekend.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as
it drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around
~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain
the atypical temperature pattern Wed-Thu, with slightly warmer
highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the
Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps each day
mainly in the low 90s, with mid to upper 80s along the coast.
And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we don`t
appear likely to see heat indices in the triple digits through
Thursday.

EPS/GEFS guidance does (very) slowly break down the heat ridge
for the mid to late week period, as an inverted upper trough
pushes ashore along the deep south from the western Atlantic,
undercutting the core of the heat ridge aloft to our north. As
the heat ridge remains in control, this portends continued very
warm/dry conditions through the upcoming work week.

Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be
Friday into next weekend, as high pressure slides offshore of
the mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical
summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern then allows heat to build
Friday with highs into the mid 90s, as dewpoints/PW values
recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probs and
thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more
widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the
upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and in the low 100s on Sunday.
Lastly, it is a ways off, but worth noting that LREF/NBM probs
are >30-40% of Max T AOA 100 over the I-95 corridor next
weekend. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week
but will average in the low to mid 70s next weekend as the PWs
increase again. A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize
by next weekend, as a weak lee trough sets up Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Winds SE
5-10 kt, become light/variable tonight/overnight. Some
increasing low to mid-level cloudiness possible over inland
areas after midnight, though CIGs do look to remain
predominately VFR.

Outlook: Winds will average 10 kt or less with dry/VFR
conditions and a mostly clear into early next week as high
pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and relatively benign pattern in place across the
waters for much of the week.

- Gusty SE winds this afternoon into this evening, especially in the
bay.

- Near Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Chesapeake Bay
  for Monday afternoon and evening.

Winds are gradually turning SE as the high over the NE states shifts
offshore. This high will become nearly stationary just north of
Bermuda for much of the week. Winds will continue to increase
especially in the bay this afternoon into early this evening as the
pressure gradient tightens slightly. Am not expecting small craft
advisory conditions, but there may be a few gusts to 20 kt late this
afternoon into this evening in the bay. Winds decrease tonight, then
increase again on Monday afternoon. Guidance shows a slightly
tighter pressure gradient Monday afternoon and guidance has come in
a tad stronger with winds. May see brief small craft advisory
conditions in the bay Monday afternoon/evening as wind probs show
about a 50-60 percent prob of 18kt+ winds. Not enough confidence at
this time to issue a SCA but it will be monitored.

Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite stagnant through the remainder
of the week with southerly winds of 5-15 kt with the strongest
winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-2 ft in the bay
through Wed. Waves may increase to 3 to 4 feet on Thu and Friday as
some SE swell moves toward the area.

Will keep with the moderate rip current risk for the northern
beaches on Monday and Tuesday. With waves approaching 3 feet in the
southern waters, will introduce a moderate rip current risk for that
area as well for Monday. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday
which will keep the moderate confined to the northern beaches. By
mid week, there is a hint of a little SE swell that may push seas to
3-4 ft. If this happens, there will be elevated rip risks through
the end of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MRD