903
FXUS61 KAKQ 120748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes off the coast later today through Thursday,
bringing a warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front
pushes through Friday night with a chance for a few showers and
storms. Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend,
followed by a hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Key message:

- Partly sunny and seasonable today, mainly dry.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered over
New England. At the surface, weak sfc high pressure is in place
locally, with a trough of low pressure from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico to off the north FL/GA coast. Light/variable winds and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies prevail. It is comfortably
cool with temperatures mostly ranging from the upper 50s to
lower 60s, with some mid 50s in the piedmont and mid 60s near
the coast in the SE. Patchy fog through sunrise but is not
expected be be widespread.

The upper level trough remains well off to the NE today, with a
subtle/weak shortwave forecast to brush across northern portions
of the FA this aftn and evening. Near normal highs are expected
with temps in the mid 80s for most inland areas, and upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast. While it will be mostly dry, some
of the latest CAMs continue to show the potential for a few
showers late in the day. Will maintain just a slight chc (15%)
for a few showers across the far north closest to the shortwave,
but have disregarded the CAMs that show pop up showers farther
to the south. The most likely solution is that the shortwave
causes partly to mostly cloudy skies, rather than much in the
way of precip. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with lows
mostly from 60-65F (slightly warmer SE coastal areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Thursday into Friday with mainly
  dry weather, followed by a chance for storms Friday night.

High pressure moves offshore Thu with temps warming into the
mid 80s to around 90F (warmest inland) under partly- mostly
sunny skies. Lows Thu night

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E,
though the trend continues to depict the upper trough across
eastern Canada to be a little stronger, keeping the core of the
upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states.
At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the
East Coast, gradually sliding offshore. The forecast for Fri
remains on track with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising
to 18-19C. Highs Fri looks to average in the mid 90s well
inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s
closer to the coast. However, given the continental origin of
this airmass, dew points continue to be fairly low, mixing into
the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat index from
being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew
points will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure
gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air
temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories
look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid-
upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri
afternoon.

The cold front drops S across the local area Fri evening into
Fri night with at least a chc for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). For now, have
maintained 30-40% PoPs across the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore with 15-25% PoPs farther S/SW. Lows in the 60s to near 70F
(warmest SE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry for the weekend with temperatures close to normal for mid
  June.

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, probably
  persisting through the week.

The upper level trough moves offshore Sat with the center of >
1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun. Overall,
it looks like a pleasant weekend with dew pts falling back into
the 50s for most of the area with highs in the low- mid 80s
along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland both Sat and Sun.

The models continue to depict the upper level ridge building
across the East Coast next week. The 00Z/12 ECMWF continues to
be the strongest and most persistent with the ridge while the
GFS is generally the weakest. The GEFS shows a stronger more
persistent ridge than the operational GFS so overall the consensus
favors a prolonged period of hot and mainly dry conditions
across the local area. Highs rise to 90-95F Mon inland (mid/upper
80s along the coast) and a more widespread low-mid 90s on Tue.
While it still does not appear to be that humid (dew pts in
60s), WPC probs are ~50% across interior sections of the local
area at reaching heat indices at or above 100F by Tue- Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 06z TAF
period should persist through Wednesday night. Light/variable
winds become E-NE near the coast and SE inland later this
morning and afternoon <10kt. Guidance continues to show
potential for a brief period of MVFR/IFR VSBYs between 8-11z
(4-7 AM EDT) at SBY/ECG, have maintained MVFR VSBYs in the TAFs.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with mainly dry weather
tonight through Fri. A cold front crosses the area Fri evening
into Fri night with a low chance for late day/evening showers or
storms possible (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). VFR Sat-Sunday
as high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions likely persist through late week before a
  cold front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday.

Broad 1016mb high pressure is noted over PA/NY, extending southward
into the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft, the upper low/trough over New
England will continue to drift offshore today. Winds early this
morning are generally from the east at 5-10 kt. Waves in the Ches
Bay are around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft.

High pressure will gradually move offshore today. Weak synoptic
flow will allow sea breeze circulations to augment periods of
SE/onshore flow this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon,
generally SE 10-15 kt. Winds diminish somewhat to 5-10 kt
during the evening and overnight hours. The pressure gradient
tightens on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front but winds
are expected to stay in the 10-15 kt range in the pre-frontal
southerly flow. The front moves across the waters late Friday
night into Saturday morning with winds becoming N and increasing
to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A period of SCA headlines will
likely accompany the frontal passage into the first half of
Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck
Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions offshore is
lower given the higher wind thresholds for the ocean waters.
Waves in the bay will average 1-2 ft through the period with 2-3
ft possible during periods of stronger flow this
afternoon/evening and again Thursday and late Friday. Seas will
average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft likely during the stronger surge
late Friday into Saturday. Offshore wind direction will tend to
limit seas but a period of 4-5 ft is possible during this
timeframe (especially N and out near 20 nm). Quiet marine
conditions return and are likely to persist well into next week
with strong high pressure aloft lingering over the region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches today and Thursday.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase near-
shore wave height and longer period swells for the northern beaches
where a moderate rip risk my be required.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not likely for most places Friday, but are
listed below as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...