Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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154 FXUS64 KAMA 172322 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 As the sun sets this evening, we will lose daytime heating and any potential for a stray shower or storm to develop. There are some cumulus along a weak dry line across the western stack of counties in the Panhandles, but there have been no attempts at convection to this point. Kept some low end mentionable PoPs for the next few hours in case something is able to develop, but the chances at this point are very low. Breezy to gusty south winds will continue during through the evening into the overnight hours. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Another chance at showers and thunderstorms presents itself today as we see a short-wave trof brush across the Panhandles later this afternoon. This short-wave will allow for a weak dry line to push back into the western potions of the Panhandles and act as a potential boundary for storms to develop and break the present cap. Should something develop and stay sustained, there is enough ingredients present for any thunderstorms to turn severe with last CAMs still presenting 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with effective bulk shear around 35kt in places. While this will be enough to see large hail develop in a thunderstorm, the bigger concern may fall in the damaging straight line wind category. Currently models are seeing at least 1800 J/kg of DCAPE present for the afternoon and evening time frame, which is a good indication of strong outflow and down burst winds with potential present to see gusts upwards of 70 mph. Meanwhile, the present breezy to gusty surface winds will look to hold through the evening hours as the lee-side surface low holds just off the Southern Front Range. Expect winds to stay southerly to southwesterly for most of the day, which will also aid in keeping temperatures warm and in the mid to upper 90s. As for Tuesday, similar circumstances will look to be present as another short-wave trof moves though and keeps the dry line east of where it has been for the last couple of weeks. Once again, expect the boundary to be our main point initiation for storms that afternoon, with many of the CAMs favoring the northern Panhandles as our best chances for development. However, many models are trending towards a much stronger cap to be in place for the afternoon, which has made our best chances only be 20 to 30% for the afternoon. Regardless should something actually develop, MLCAPE is expected to be better with some of the north seeing values above 2000 J/kg that afternoon. However, shear is looking much weaker at this time with models only placing around 25kt in those same areas. This lack of shear may make it hard for storms to stay sustained long enough to develop large hail, but damaging winds could still be present, especially with DCAPE reaching upwards of 1900 J/kg. Otherwise, expect similar breezy to gusty conditions to exist tomorrow as well. These winds could potentially create elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions for far northwestern portions of the Panhandles. However, confidence in this very low given the recent precipitation in the area as well as the potential precipitation that may fall that day. Scoleri && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For Wednesday through Sunday, medium range models and ensemble members suggest the upper level ridge will expand westward to encompass the southern states from Arizona to Florida as the western states upper level trof weakens and translates eastward across the north central states. That said, the overall strength of this upper level ridge will dictate how much moisture, if any, advects northwestward into our area from expected development of a possible tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. The latest 12Z medium range models and associated ensembles have continued to trend more towards a stronger upper level ridge which, if progged correctly, would act to steer the potential tropical system more westward as opposed to northwestward during the Wednesday through Friday time period. If that occurs in a manner similar to yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF, then the deep moisture may remain well south and southeast of our forecast area without much of a northwestward component and, therefore, a reduced threat for showers and thunderstorms. Latest NBM pops have trended down a a bit from 24 hours ago and may be reflecting latest model trends. Therefore, have sided with the NBM pops for Wednesday through Sunday. Expect further refinements to the forecast during the coming days as models begin to converge on a common solution regarding the upper level pattern and eventual strength of the progged sprawling high pressure for the middle to latter part of this week. 02 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are likely at all sites with this TAF issuance. Southerly winds will continue during the next 24 hours with gusts remaining in the 30 to 40 kt range. Low level wind shear is forecast to develop across the area tonight with winds around 2000 ft agl near 60 kts. Higher confidence in these strong low level winds is at KDHT/KGUY. LLWS may need to be added at KAMA should confidence increase at the next TAF cycle. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 92 69 85 / 10 10 20 20 Beaver OK 72 95 69 88 / 10 10 30 40 Boise City OK 67 98 60 84 / 10 10 20 50 Borger TX 73 97 71 91 / 10 10 20 30 Boys Ranch TX 71 97 69 89 / 20 10 20 30 Canyon TX 70 92 68 85 / 20 10 10 20 Clarendon TX 71 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 Dalhart TX 67 98 63 86 / 20 10 20 40 Guymon OK 70 97 65 87 / 20 10 30 40 Hereford TX 70 94 69 87 / 20 10 10 20 Lipscomb TX 72 93 69 88 / 10 0 20 30 Pampa TX 70 90 69 86 / 10 10 10 20 Shamrock TX 72 92 69 85 / 10 10 10 10 Wellington TX 72 92 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...05