Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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345 FXUS64 KAMA 080802 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 302 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Saturday will be another hot day as the ridge continues to sit across the southern plains. This will see the highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s across the panhandles. Palo Duro Canyon is likely to be the hottest area with a Heat Advisory in effect for this afternoon and evening. This doesn`t mean only that area poses a heat risk as areas like the Canadian River Valley will also be very toasty but just not quite that hot. So it is best to practice heat safety and drink plenty of fluids and take appropriate breaks to avoid heat illness today. Moisture will continue to linger across the panhandles for Saturday which will lead to another round of afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. The environment is supportive of these being high based with a deep dry layer below the cloud level. This is an ideal setup for dry micro burst to occur with any rain shower and thunderstorms. The most likely severe threat will be powerful winds from the downbursts however there is a chance that large hail may also occur with the strongest storms. A cold front is then likely to pass across the panhandles late on Saturday bringing much cooler air. The passage of the front may bring a thunderstorm complex to the southern plains with the OK panhandle having a low chance of being impacted directly during the late evening hours. This could cause secondary storms to form from any outflow that the MCS produces even if it stays to the north of the panhandles. If the MCS doesn occur then it more likely that the overnight hours will be on the calmer side. Sunday will be much cooler following the passage of the cold front with highs in the 70s to 80s being generally cooler in the north compared to the southern panhandles. Moisture will be increasing in the panhandles on Sunday which will allow for a further round of rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The ridge on Sunday will weaken which should allow for a small trough to transit the flow and pass across the panhandles during the later afternoon and evening. This trough will increase the rain shower and thunderstorm activity for the later afternoon and evening across the panhandles. The higher moisture amounts will allow these to be fairly wet storms which coupled with slow storm motion will open the panhandles up for flooding. The additional lift provided by the trough will also allow some storms to become strong to severe with wind and hail being the main threats. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Active weather is expected to hold for the Panhandles as we move into the work week thanks to a trough holding a stalled frontal boundary over the area and good moisture flow present at the lower level. As it stand, latest model runs continue to see this trough keep a 500mb high over the Gulf coast, which in turn will work with the trough to set up good southeasterly flow at the lower levels. This flow, will allow good amounts of moisture to advect into the Panhandles with many models calling for PWAT values ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches for Monday. This high amount amount of moisture will find an easy lifting mechanism in the present stalled boundary which will allow for showers to be present throughout the day and overnight. As for severe concerns, lasted model runs are not that excited with MLCAPE values barley nearing 500mb and effective bulk shear peaking at 25kt at best. Rather concerns may be more focused on the flooding potential with many models seeing the potential for an inch or more in accumulation in the form of continued status rain showers throughout the day. Of course this will also be on top of any precipitation that fell on Sunday, which could see the Panhandles well saturated by the time Monday rolls around. Regardless, expect showers to slowly dwindle off as we move into Tuesday with models expecting the upper-level trough finally pushing off. Once the trough does move off, model do expect a brief dry period to follow as the stationary high that set up in the Southwestern United States expands over the Panhandles. As this expansion occurs, look for temperatures to quickly be on the rise with many locations going from the upper 70s Monday back into the 90s by Wednesday. Of course, this dry period wont last long as many models expect a new trough to move through just to our north by the end of the week. While there is still some uncertainty present, this passage will allow for a break down of the upper- level high pressure system and more opportunities for active weather clear into the weekend. Otherwise, look for the hot temperature to stay with many locations reaching the high 90s to triple digits as early as Thursday. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Light overnight showers are currently over the panhandles but these will dissipate over the coming hours with minimal to no impacts to any TAF site. Another round of rain showers and thunderstorms will form in the panhandles this afternoon and evening which can impact all TAF sites. These should be high based and shouldn`t lead to any reductions in flight category even if they pass over a airfield. However these rain showers and thunderstorms should be efficient wind producers capable of strong to severe outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 103 66 87 62 / 10 40 30 80 Beaver OK 98 64 80 60 / 20 60 30 60 Boise City OK 96 59 78 57 / 40 50 40 70 Borger TX 103 66 87 63 / 20 40 30 80 Boys Ranch TX 103 65 87 62 / 10 40 30 80 Canyon TX 103 66 88 60 / 20 40 30 80 Clarendon TX 101 68 89 62 / 0 30 30 70 Dalhart TX 100 61 81 58 / 30 40 30 80 Guymon OK 97 61 80 59 / 30 60 30 70 Hereford TX 104 66 90 61 / 10 30 30 80 Lipscomb TX 100 65 82 61 / 20 50 30 60 Pampa TX 101 65 84 61 / 20 40 30 70 Shamrock TX 102 69 89 62 / 0 20 30 70 Wellington TX 103 71 93 63 / 0 10 20 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...98