154
FXUS64 KAMA 172322
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As the sun sets this evening, we will lose daytime heating and any
potential for a stray shower or storm to develop. There are some
cumulus along a weak dry line across the western stack of counties
in the Panhandles, but there have been no attempts at convection
to this point. Kept some low end mentionable PoPs for the next
few hours in case something is able to develop, but the chances at
this point are very low. Breezy to gusty south winds will
continue during through the evening into the overnight hours.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Another chance at showers and thunderstorms presents itself today
as we see a short-wave trof brush across the Panhandles later
this afternoon. This short-wave will allow for a weak dry line to
push back into the western potions of the Panhandles and act as a
potential boundary for storms to develop and break the present
cap. Should something develop and stay sustained, there is enough
ingredients present for any thunderstorms to turn severe with last
CAMs still presenting 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with effective
bulk shear around 35kt in places. While this will be enough to see
large hail develop in a thunderstorm, the bigger concern may fall
in the damaging straight line wind category. Currently models are
seeing at least 1800 J/kg of DCAPE present for the afternoon and
evening time frame, which is a good indication of strong outflow
and down burst winds with potential present to see gusts upwards
of 70 mph. Meanwhile, the present breezy to gusty surface winds
will look to hold through the evening hours as the lee-side
surface low holds just off the Southern Front Range. Expect winds
to stay southerly to southwesterly for most of the day, which
will also aid in keeping temperatures warm and in the mid to upper
90s.

As for Tuesday, similar circumstances will look to be present as
another short-wave trof moves though and keeps the dry line east
of where it has been for the last couple of weeks. Once again,
expect the boundary to be our main point initiation for storms
that afternoon, with many of the CAMs favoring the northern
Panhandles as our best chances for development. However, many
models are trending towards a much stronger cap to be in place for
the afternoon, which has made our best chances only be 20 to 30%
for the afternoon. Regardless should something actually develop,
MLCAPE is expected to be better with some of the north seeing
values above 2000 J/kg that afternoon. However, shear is looking
much weaker at this time with models only placing around 25kt in
those same areas. This lack of shear may make it hard for storms
to stay sustained long enough to develop large hail, but damaging
winds could still be present, especially with DCAPE reaching
upwards of 1900 J/kg. Otherwise, expect similar breezy to gusty
conditions to exist tomorrow as well. These winds could
potentially create elevated to low-end critical fire weather
conditions for far northwestern portions of the Panhandles.
However, confidence in this very low given the recent
precipitation in the area as well as the potential precipitation
that may fall that day.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For Wednesday through Sunday, medium range models and ensemble
members suggest the upper level ridge will expand westward to
encompass the southern states from Arizona to Florida as the
western states upper level trof weakens and translates eastward
across the north central states. That said, the overall strength
of this upper level ridge will dictate how much moisture, if any,
advects northwestward into our area from expected development of a
possible tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days. The latest 12Z medium range models and
associated ensembles have continued to trend more towards a
stronger upper level ridge which, if progged correctly, would act
to steer the potential tropical system more westward as opposed to
northwestward during the Wednesday through Friday time period. If
that occurs in a manner similar to yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF, then
the deep moisture may remain well south and southeast of our
forecast area without much of a northwestward component and,
therefore, a reduced threat for showers and thunderstorms. Latest
NBM pops have trended down a a bit from 24 hours ago and may be
reflecting latest model trends. Therefore, have sided with the NBM
pops for Wednesday through Sunday. Expect further refinements to
the forecast during the coming days as models begin to converge on
a common solution regarding the upper level pattern and eventual
strength of the progged sprawling high pressure for the middle to
latter part of this week.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are likely at all sites with this TAF issuance.
Southerly winds will continue during the next 24 hours with gusts
remaining in the 30 to 40 kt range. Low level wind shear is
forecast to develop across the area tonight with winds around 2000
ft agl near 60 kts. Higher confidence in these strong low level
winds is at KDHT/KGUY. LLWS may need to be added at KAMA should
confidence increase at the next TAF cycle.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  92  69  85 /  10  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  72  95  69  88 /  10  10  30  40
Boise City OK              67  98  60  84 /  10  10  20  50
Borger TX                  73  97  71  91 /  10  10  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              71  97  69  89 /  20  10  20  30
Canyon TX                  70  92  68  85 /  20  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               71  89  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 67  98  63  86 /  20  10  20  40
Guymon OK                  70  97  65  87 /  20  10  30  40
Hereford TX                70  94  69  87 /  20  10  10  20
Lipscomb TX                72  93  69  88 /  10   0  20  30
Pampa TX                   70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
Shamrock TX                72  92  69  85 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              72  92  70  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05