Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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297 FXUS63 KAPX 100646 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool, with at least some frost expected tonight. - Watching possible severe chances for Thursday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Large area of Canada originated surface high pressure building southeast into the northern Great Lakes early this morning, with its upper level parent lurking a bit further upstream across the northern Plains into the prairie lands of southern Canada. Attendant deep layer subsidence and dry air advection taken their collective toll on low clouds, with a distinct clearing line building south into eastern upper Michigan. Temperatures continue to run at least a few degrees below normal, with current readings dropping into the 40s across a good portion of the area. Surface high pressure will continue to build southeast, centering directly across the Northwoods later today through tonight. This sets the stage for continued clearing and maintenance of below normal temperatures. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any frost potential tonight. Details: Skies will continue to clear into this morning, with some scattered shallow cumulus likely later this morning and afternoon. Despite plenty of sunshine, overhead cool airmass will only support highs ranging through the 60s (perhaps some areas making a run at 70 down near Saginaw Bay). Perfect conditions expected tonight to deliver an excellent nocturnal temperature response...with clear skies, light winds, and an increasingly dry low level environment. Little doubt much of the interior will make a run into the mid and upper 30s by early Tuesday morning...with even some of our traditional ice box locations possibly dipping into the lower 30s. Definitely not out of the question for the need for frost advisory headlines, but will punt that decision to the day crew for better geographical placement ...if one is indeed needed. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper level heights continue to trend up Tuesday, allowing temperatures to reach back near seasonal. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will likely allow a lake breeze to form, which could slightly cool coastal areas in the afternoon hours. A quick moving shortwave could bring some mid to upper level moisture to the state late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. PW values aren`t particularly impressive, and saturation will have to work its way to the surface. Most global models want to weaken the shortwave as it approaches western MI as well. This leads to higher confidence in some light rain but mostly clouds into Tuesday morning. Depending on how much moisture will reach the surface and be available Wednesday afternoon, slight chances exist for an isolated towering CU or two to grow into a rain shower and/or thunderstorm. Better chances for sufficient instability for thunderstorms is Thursday afternoon. A surface low and and upper level trough will move east over the US/CA border near MN early Thursday. A trailing front will possibly move over northern MI Thursday midday/early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the 60s will possibly be advected ahead of the boundary. This will lead to chances for decent instability over the state. Healthy shear could allow storms to organize as they move across the CWA. Northerly winds build in early Friday with a second boundary, which will briefly cool temperatures down before they trend warm for next weekend. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: At this time, models are still trying to resolve key features that would lead to a more favorable environment for severe weather Thursday. The elements that have more confidence are the moisture advection and some wind shear present Thursday. The uncertain parts are timing of when the fronts will pass (first boundary from the west and the second from the north early Friday morning), and where that forcing will be strongest. Global models depict a stronger cluster of storms (potentially MCS) over southern MI, with more stronger storms north of the U.P. This would lead to less coverage over northern lower MI with some decent coverage over Eastern Upper. As has been the case lately, there are many factors ahead of Thursday. We will be watching how things materialize. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper level trough axis and resulting cold front will continue to sink SE away from Lower Michigan overnight...as low level ridging gradually builds into the Western Great Lakes thru Monday. Large area of strong high pressure and dry air will then build overhead by Monday night. Low VFR/MVFR cigs will diminish and VFR conditions will return to our area overnight...Monday and Monday night. Surface winds will remain from the N/NW at 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts at times thru Monday...and then become light/variable Monday night as the high center builds into our state. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LHZ347>349. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MLR