335
FXUS63 KAPX 191911
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storm chances this afternoon and evening

- Hot temperatures this afternoon before cold front moves
  through today

- Relief from heat, shower/thunderstorm chances continue at
  times through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Feature of note will be a cold front this evening with a cooler
airmass behind as winds shift to a more northerly component. Sfc
high pressure builds to the north-northwest of the region into
Thursday. Meanwhile, heights aloft remain quite anomalously high for
this time of year. Few showers and storms expected through the
period due to a combination of the frontal feature and the moisture
axis shifting south Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Frontal boundary/cooler airmass works into the region tonight as
winds decrease but also shift around to the north/northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well but due to the
combination of modest instability and shear, only general
thunderstorms expected. Thus, brief heavy downpours and lightning
will be the primary concerns.

High pressure builds to the north of the region Thursday, as cooler
and drier air works into the region. This will shunt 60+ degree
dewpoints generally across the southern portions of northern lower
Michigan, likely where the best chance for isolated convection will
remain. Very well could be some showers or a storm or two farther
north (indications are into the E UP), but the unstable air will
more or less remain south of Gaylord Thursday afternoon, thus not
much of a concern. Temps will be much cooler overall, with 70s and
80s across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Energy currently evident on water vapor imagery across southwest
Canada teams up with tropical moisture from the south to likely spin
up surface low pressure as we head toward and into the weekend.
Meanwhile, the strong upper level ridge that has brought the
hot weather to the region over the last few days will reorient
itself farther south and west with time early next week.
Obviously, a few moving parts involved and how they all interact
across the region is the biggest question. Overall, expect
increasing chances for showers and cooler temperatures through
the weekend. Low amplitude troughing then sets up across the
region early next weekend before increasing ridging takes over
once again later in the week. So seasonably warm temperatures
early next week could morph back into another heat wave later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy conditions (gusts 20 to 30 kts) will remain through the
afternoon, then quickly diminish overnight. ISO TSRA this
afternoon and evening, best chance KTVC, KMBL, and to a lesser
extent KCIU. But generally not too confident in direct impacts
to terminals. Will amend TAF if necessary. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA will
continue into the overnight hours, with lingering chances into
the early portion of Thursday, likely in a light band of
precipitation covering central portions of northern lower.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ095-
     096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JLD