Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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487 FXUS63 KAPX 222349 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 749 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues into tonight; cooler Monday - Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday - Dry weather, above average temperatures expected into this weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 410 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: General surface troughing has been tracking east today...reaching Drummond Island southward generally toward Saginaw Bay. Surface low/wave along the boundary well to our south over SW Lower MI. Rainfall generally more stratiform south of a line from PZQ to CAD to FFX where right entrance region jet dynamics are playing a bigger part in broader synoptic forcing. Some embedded heavier bands of precip where some mesoscale enhancement, most likely in the form of deformation as NW flow behind the boundary diverges a bit as it reaches the boundary (broadly northerly surface flow, though, in the wake of the low), and/or potentially some gravity waves and/or fgen. Rainfall is a bit more convective from FKS toward ANJ/DRM along/ahead of the 850mb trough; additionally...better PVA with the primary PV anomaly located up here...and some better rainfall rates at times (ANJ has picked up a little over six-tenths in the last few hours with some of these convective showers). Some clearing noted to our northwest in the wake of the 850mb trough, though some diurnal and/or lake streamer clouds noted per visible satellite, as temps aloft cool into the single digits. Expecting surface trough as well as 850mb trough to exit stage right through the night, likely to our east by morning. Showers and storms to continue to depart early this evening with things quieting down tonight weather-wise. Some potential for waterspouts over the waters as we cool off aloft. Good shot of north flow induced small craft advisory criteria through tonight, especially for Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay; less confidence attm in reaching this for Presque Isle zone, but have left the small craft up for now. Also think some fog could develop overnight if we decouple enough, given the added moisture from today`s rainfall (guidance soundings suggest decoupling will take place, though not sure winds will totally die off overnight); otherwise could be some annoying low stratus around. High pressure settles in in the wake of this for Monday...with temps a bit on the cool side due to prevailing northerly flow, though could be a little warmer than normal if it ends up sunny enough. Will have to keep an eye on winds/waves for Monday as well, as there is some potential for slight northeasterly flow to generate small- craft-advisory conditions for areas south of Thunder Bay in particular on Monday...though it appears marginal attm whether or not it will be able to get into our nearshore zones. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 410 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Southern stream troughing will continue to lift across the Mississippi Valley and over the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the pattern upstream looks to amplify greatly heading into the middle of the week with northern stream troughing digging sharply down the Great Plains towards the Gulf Coast and expansive ridging encompassing most of the western CONUS. Said troughing is expected to get cut off from the main flow, pivoting over the southern Mississippi Valley through the remainder of the week as aforementioned ridging folds northern over the Great Lakes. To further complicate the pattern, a potential tropical cyclone may make landfall across the Gulf Coast later this week, likely aiding to build ridging across much of the country to its north through the end of the period. Forecast Details: Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday -- After a break from showers Monday night, rain chances will return to parts of northern Michigan on Tuesday as a weak cyclone looks to trek across the southern Great Lakes. Uncertainty in strength and track will impact how far north and west rain chances extend across the area, especially Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Current confidence is that the best chances for rain will come along and southeast of a line from Manistee to Alpena, with lesser chances extending northwest of here. With model guidance differing in track and strength of precip, belief is to lean on a weaker/drier solution for two reasons: potential precip working against recent extended period of dry conditions, and relatively weak forcing potentially resulting in a solution that is further southeast with the track of the system. Latest trends in model guidance will be monitored closely. Dry weather, above average temps -- After rain chances depart on Wednesday, another extended period of rain-free weather may be in store for the area for the second half of the week and through this upcoming weekend. If ridging materializes as expected, high pressure would build across the region and keep dry weather in place through the extended forecast. With little forcing, no significant frontal passages, and therefore no substantial airmass change, daytime highs in the 70s with overnight lows upper 40s and 50s could stay in place across northern Michigan through the period and beyond. These temperatures would be around 5-10 degrees warmer than average for the end of September. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR to IFR producing cigs and vis restrictions in light showers will steadily end from west to east tonight. Expect VFR conditions Monday under mostly sunny skies. Some gusty north to northwest winds this evening will decrease overnight. Mostly light north to northeast winds expected on Monday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...MSB