673
AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is near 10.5N 52.2W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving
west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 95
kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Peak seas are 24
ft near the center. The hurricane continues to become better
organized on satellite imagery, with strong convection extending
to 90 nm from the center and scattered moderate convection
extending to 200 nm from the center. A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Rapid
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is
expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches
the Windward Islands.

Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest 94L): A broad area of low
pressure is over the Bay of Campeche with disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for further development, and a short- lived tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico
on Monday. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue
affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next
week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary. This system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
hours and 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Satellite-derived surface wind data
indicate that an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by the midweek while it moves generally westward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over
the next 48 hours and a high chance of development in the next 7
days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is currently affecting SE Mexico and western
Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest
high precipitation amounts over Mexico and northern Central
America through Tue. As the system continues propagating
northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, Quintana
Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this weekend. These
rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico
along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is recommended that
residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest
information from their local weather services. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 12N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 10N and between 22W and 42W. Refer to the Special
Features section for more information.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends from 19N64W to
08N67W. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are occurring east of the wave trough. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 15N and between 61W and 68W.

An eastern Bay of Campeche tropical wave (Invest 94L) is along
91W, south of 23N, moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. Refer to
the Special Features section for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 10N23W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N23W to 06N35W to 10N46W and then from 09N54W to 11N61W.
Convection along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is described in the
Special Features and Tropical Waves sections.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest
94L forecast to likely affect Mexico early next week.

A broad subtropical ridge centered in the central Atlantic extends
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support fresh to strong
easterly winds south of 27N and west of 89W. Seas in these waters
are 7-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 23N93W. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the
Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the
Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
large seas NW of the Yucatan Peninsula to the west-central Gulf
with occasional gusts to gale force. Conditions appear generally
conducive for further development and a tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical N
Atlantic may approach the NW Caribbean late next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible Thu over portions near the
Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl is forecast to be near 17.0N 78.9W late
Wed, and near 8.5N 85.0W late Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl located east of the Windward Islands and Invest
94L entering the Bay of Campeche.

An upper level low over eastern Cuba results in a few showers
affecting eastern Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and Jamaica. A
broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are present elsewhere in the basin, except
for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft in
the areas mentioned, except for slight seas in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 10.4N 51.2W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt
with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 986 mb.
Beryl will move to 10.8N 53.7W Sun morning, 11.5N 57.0W Sun
evening, 12.3N 60.4W Mon morning, 13.4N 64.0W Mon evening, 14.6N
67.6W Tue morning, and 15.6N 71.7W Tue evening. Beryl will change
little in intensity as it moves to 17.0N 78.9W late Wed, and near
8.5N 85.0W late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds southeast of
the Yucatan will diminish Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in advance of
Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into the tropical
N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the E Caribbean
thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure and
accompanying tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Beryl located east of the Windward Islands and the disturbance in
the eastern Atlantic.

Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A
couple of upper level lows north of the Bahamas are producing a
few showers in the NW Bahamas and nearby waters and between
Bermuda and Hispaniola. A generally dry airmass, associated with
Saharan dust, is found elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, north
of the deep tropics. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in
fresh to moderate northerly winds north of 19N and east of 25W.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times,
through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl is near 10.4N 51.2W
at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 986 mb. Beryl will move to 10.8N 53.7W Sun morning,
11.5N 57.0W Sun evening, 12.3N 60.4W Mon morning, 13.4N 64.0W Mon
evening, 14.6N 67.6W Tue morning, and 15.6N 71.7W Tue evening.
Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.0N 78.9W
late Wed, and near 8.5N 85.0W late Thu. A decaying cold front may
drop south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$
Delgado