831
AXNT20 KNHC 291752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 10.0N 48.4W at 29/1800 UTC
or 680 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft. Satellite
imagery indicate an expanding central dense overcast feature.
Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on
the west side of the circulation of Beryl. The new NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a
major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward
Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Beryl is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the
Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause
flooding in vulnerable areas. Swells generated by the storm are
expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by
late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear
generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before the system moves inland again early next week
over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will
affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next
week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. A 1007 mb low pressure is
analyzed near 18.5N88.5W. Currently, a cluster of moderate to
strong convection is near the low center affecting northern
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula while a band-like of showers and
thunderstorms extends from the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua all the
way northward to near Cancun, Mexico. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and
northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues
propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at
Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this
weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal
areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is
recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay
alert on the latest information from their local weather services.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East
Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 13N southward,
or several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 09N
between 26W and 33W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 61W/62W from 19N southward into Ne Venezuela, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection
are noted mainly on the E side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N
between 57W and 63W.

Another tropical wave (AL94) is near 88W, and extends from the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Belize, western
Honduras and El Salvador. It is moving west-northwestward at
around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
The Gambia near 13.5N16.5W, then continues southwestward to 10N21W
to 07N40W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic due to disruption
by Tropical Storm Beryl. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 06N to 11N between 17W and 26W, and from 03N to 07N between
33W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest
AL94 forecast to likely affect Mexico early next week.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1018 mb high pressure
located W of Tampa Bay, FL near 28N84W. Recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds and seas at
5 to 8 ft over the south-central Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and a
broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support
fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas spreading from
the Yucatan Channel west-northwest through the weekend. The
system is forecast to move west-northwestward, where conditions
appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico
early next week. Conditions are forecast to improve across the
Gulf waters Mon through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm
Beryl, and the Invest Area AL94.

Satellite derived wind data show moderate to fresh winds over the
east and central Caribbean while fresh to strong SE winds prevail
in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the SW
portion of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft W of 85W with the
strongest winds, and 6 to 8 ft N of 16N and W of 83W. Elsewhere
seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in SW Caribbean
over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave is generating showers and
thunderstorms over the Windward Islands. Please, see the TROPICAL
WAVES section for more details.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 10.0N 47.8W at 11 AM
EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998
mb. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 50.5W this
evening, move to 11.1N 53.8W Sun morning, 11.8N 57.3W Sun evening,
12.6N 60.8W Mon morning, 13.7N 64.3W Mon evening, and 14.9N 68.3W
Tue morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 17.0N 75.5W early Wed. Meanwhile, a broad area of low
pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong
E to SE winds and building seas in the NW Caribbean through the
Yucatan Channel through tonight. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean later in the weekend into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Beryl.

Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A
couple of weak troughs are noted. One is E of Florida and extends
from near 31N79W to SE Florida. The other one is related to an
upper-level low and runs from 30N68W to 25N71W. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of these troughs. The pressure gradient
between the Azores High and T.S. Beryl supports an area of fresh
to strong NE winds from 12N to 20N between 47W and 54W based on
scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 Ft within these winds per
altimeter data. A belt of moderate to fresh trade winds is noted
elsewhere roughly from 15N to 25N E of 55W to the W coast of
Africa with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of 1 to 3 ft N
of 25N and W of 70W, including the NW and central Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
through the next several days. Tropical Storm Beryl is near 10.0N
47.8W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near
10.4N 50.5W this evening, move to 11.1N 53.8W Sun morning, 11.8N
57.3W Sun evening, 12.6N 60.8W Mon morning, 13.7N 64.3W Mon
evening, and 14.9N 68.3W Tue morning. Beryl will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 17.0N 7.5W early Wed. A decaying
cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$
GR