646
AXNT20 KNHC 221815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): A broad low pressure system
located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 22N to 26N. Winds
are 20-30 kt with 8-10 ft seas. Environmental conditions appear
to have become a little more marginal for development of this
system as it moves slowly northwestward, but a tropical
depression could still form before the system reaches the coast
of northeastern Mexico Sunday night. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across
portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the
end of the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is currently investigating the disturbance. This system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and
in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 12N,
and moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 09N and between 25W and 42W.
This convection is likely enhanced by nearby segments of the
ITCZ.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 20N48W to 02N50W.
The wave is moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 48W and
56W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of
14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The analysis of the position
of the wave axis was greatly aided by 1200 UTC Upper Air Data
from Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados. Scattered moderate
convection is present S of 11N and between 58W and 63W,
including coastal regions of NE Venezuela.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
just northeast of Jamaica, impacting Caribbean approaches to the
Windward Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues
southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N33W,
and from 06N39W to 07N47W. Convection is described in the
Tropical Waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Invest AL93 over the Bay of Campeche.

A broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends
southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the influence of
AL93, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the Gulf west
of 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, outside of the influence of AL93, winds and
seas E of 90W will diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas
tonight and to light to gentle speeds on Sun. Conditions are
forecast to improve W of 90W Sun afternoon into Mon as the low
pressure system moves inland across Mexico. Weak high pressure
will reside over the E central Gulf Tue and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough extends from
Honduras and Nicaragua across the waters to Colombia. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is south of 13N, including
inland over Panama, between 76W and 83W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted in the Cayman Basin and Yucatn Channel.

Satellite scatterometer from this morning indicates moderate to
fresh trades across the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate
trades elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5
ft elsewhere. Of note, seas may peak to 6 ft near the coast of the
Yucatn Peninsula in the far NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas
over the NW Caribbean will prevail through Tue night, except for
pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern
and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to strong speeds
at night over the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The W Atlantic is dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure system
centered west of Bermuda. The latest satellite-derived wind data
indicates moderate or weaker trades across the basin west of 40W.
East of 40W, trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 4-7 ft across
the basin, except 8-9 ft in an are of NE swell from 13N to 21N
east of 38W. A weak surface trough near 26N51W is producing a few
showers.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SE winds and moderate seas
will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 60W through the
weekend as low pressure persists near the SE U.S. coast, and high
pressure prevails near Bermuda. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow
will continue elsewhere through the weekend as W Atlantic high
pressure extends along about 34N. Winds and seas will increase
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles starting on Mon night
due to an approaching tropical wave.

$$
Mahoney