Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
197 AXNT20 KNHC 190446 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. No deep convection is noted near the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. The storm activity near the wave has decreased during the past few hours. Only a few showers are evident near the trough axis on recent satellite imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to 10N30W and then to 15N42W. No significant convection is observed near this boundary. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft and a moist atmosphere continues to support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico. A few showers are also seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche associated with weakening storms that developed earlier this evening in western Yucatan. A dry continental airmass dominates the rest of the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure pattern persists across the Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will support gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas through the upcoming weekend. Moderate winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days. A cold front is forecast to clip the far NE waters Thu into Fri with little change in winds and seas. Winds may increase across the SE Gulf by Mon as a low pressure forms over the NW Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp mid to upper level trough off the SE United States and abundant moisture continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and the surrounding waters. In the SE Caribbean, a surface trough is producing a few weak showers that are also affecting the Windward Islands. High pressure located north of the Greater Antilles forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across the E and central Caribbean, and light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the NW and SW portions of the basin through at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A non-tropical 1007 mb low pressure system is near 26N53W in the north-central Atlantic. A dissipating cold front extends south of the low to 23N60W, followed by a stationary front to 31N65W. A stationary front extends from the low center to 25N41W. The low pressure is producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and between 50W and 59W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to moderate easterly winds in the area described and gusts to near gale-force associated with the strongest storms. Seas in these waters are 9-12 ft. The remnants of Gordon are located near 23N47W and scattered showers are observed north of 21N and between 37W and 49W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present in the area described. In the SW North Atlantic, a sharp trough off the SE United States continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly west of 77W. Mariners encountering these storms can expect gusty winds and suddenly higher seas. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, the pressure gradient is generally weak, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, A non-tropical low pressure system located just E of the forecast area near 26N53W is producing fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the NE waters, mainly N of 25N and E of 60W. These marine conditions will persist tonight and Thu, and gradually diminish on Fri. Expect pulsing fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola through tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin. $$ Delgado