301
AXNT20 KNHC 221019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate a broad area of low pressure is located
over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas above.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 14N,
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 08N and between 24W and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 15N44W to 02N51W.
The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 13N and between 45W and 52W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of
14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is present S of 11N and between 55W and 62W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues
southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 11N57W.
The convection has been described in the Tropical Waves section
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Invest AL93 over the Bay of Campeche.

A broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends
southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the influence of
AL93, moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring north of 25N
and west of 87W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere across the basin.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with
Invest 93L is affecting the waters of the Gulf south of 26N and
west of 87W. The strongest convection is noted in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, outside of the influence of AL93, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas E of 90W are forecast to diminish to
gentle to moderate and slight seas tonight and to light to gentle
speeds on Sun. Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun
night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The proximity of disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also
enhancing showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean,
mainly W of 72W. Generally drier conditions prevail in the rest
of the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the 1024 mb high pressure system
north of Bermuda and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in
fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean, mainly west of 84W,
and the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are noted
in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere in the remaining waters,
the easterly trades are gentle to moderate with 2-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and moderate seas over the
NW Caribbean will diminish today to moderate to fresh speeds and
moderate seas by Sat and then prevail through Tue night, except
for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across
the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to
strong speeds at night over the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The W Atlantic is dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure system
north of Bermuda. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that
fresh easterly trade winds are occurring south of 23N and between
70W and 77W, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas
in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N46W to 24N52W.
Scattered showers are noted southeast of the trough axis from 22N
to 26N between 46W-55W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is
under the influence of a strong 1029 mb high pressure system near
the Azores. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressure over western Africa provides for fresh to strong NE
winds over waters east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SE winds and moderate seas
will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 60W through the
weekend. Another area of fresh E winds and moderate seas prevails
S of 23N. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere
as high pressure continues to build across the basin. Winds and
seas will increase across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
starting on Mon night due to an approaching tropical wave.

$$
ERA