850
AXNT20 KNHC 200601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the Island of
De Cozumel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the
Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
showers and strong thunderstorms are occurring at the Gulf of
Honduras and offshore from northeastern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward through
10N24W to 07N32W. An ITCZ curves northwestward from 10N24W to
09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough
but near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between the central Africa
coast and 35W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean Waters near
Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over southern Florida is producing scattered
showers and strong thunderstorms at the Florida Straits, including
waters near the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge
runs southwestward from a 1013 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to
near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
present at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and
1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will support gentle to locally
moderate easterly winds and slight seas through the weekend.
Moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of
Campeche nightly through the next several days. Looking ahead, a
broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the
western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern
Gulf through the middle part of next week. Regardless of
development, winds and seas will start increasing across the
southeastern Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent SE to E trade winds are generating scattered showers
and thunderstorms near Jamaica, western Haiti and the Windward
Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the
south-central basin. Moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist
at the north-central basin. Gentle to locally moderate SE to S
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Light
to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are noted near Costa Rica
and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected across the eastern and central basin, while light to
gentle winds with slight to moderate seas are for the
northwestern and southwestern basin through at least Sat. Looking
ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next week
over the western and northwestern basin. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through the middle part of next week. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southward from a 1008 mb low off the
Carolina coast through 31N77W to near the northwest Bahamas.
Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring near the
northwest Bahamas and off central Florida. An upper-level trough
near the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing scattered showers
and strong thunderstorms near the southeast Bahamas and Great
Bahama Bank. Another surface trough runs southeastward from 29N63W
to a 1007 mb low near 25N55W, then turns northeastward across a
1009 mb low at 26N45W and another 1013 mb low at 29N38W to 29N29W.
Scattered moderate convection is found near these features north
of 22N between 37W and 62W. Modest convergent southerly winds
farther south are inducing isolated thunderstorms from 14N to 21N
between 41W and 56W. Refer the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Tighter gradient between the aforementioned low pressure systems
and two 1019 mb highs at the north-central Atlantic is causing
moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds, and 7 to 10
ft seas north of 22N between 40W and 61W. Otherwise, light to
gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell
are present north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and
Florida- Georgia coast, including the Canary Islands. Near the
Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are noted from 13N to 20N between the central Africa
coast and 30W. To the west from 12N to 20N between 30W and the
Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
moderate swells exist. Light to gentle with locally moderate
southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate
swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will persist north of 22N between 40W and 61W through Fri.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
tropical development of the 1007 mb low near 25N55W while it
meanders in the Subtropical Atlantic through early next week.
Expect pulsing moderate to fresh trades off the coast of
Hispaniola through Fri. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move off
the southeast coast of the US tonight and slowly move across the
waters north of 25N through Mon.

$$

Chan