390
AXNT20 KNHC 101108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico:
Abundant tropical moisture surging northward combined with mid to
upper level diffluent flow continue to generate showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of
the SW Caribbean. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough
seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective
activity over these areas, including the offshore waters of E
Honduras and Nicaragua. This convection will amplify while it
shifts towards the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits
through at least Thu. Mariners should exercise caution. Please
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast
offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 01N to
17N with axis near 20W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 16W and
26W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending S of 11N to
inland French Guiana with axis near 53W, moving westward at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to
11N between 49W and 59W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea S of 12N to
inland W Venezuela with axis near 69W, moving westward at 10-15
kt. No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in
association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean Sea with axis extending S
of 15N across Panama and into E Pac waters near 81W, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 12N to 19N between 79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N40W and to 07N52W and then
from 08N54W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
08N between 25W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico,
resulting in primarily moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.
A dry airmass continues to suppress the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Medium concentration of smoke continue over the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing
agricultural fires, creating hazy conditions. Observations along
the coast of Mexico indicate reduced visibilities of 4 nm or less.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin
toward the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends into the E Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions outside of the NW and SW Caribbean. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America results in fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE breezes and moderate seas are
occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, diffluent flow aloft will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through at least
Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally
strong winds pulsing at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE
winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad ridging continues to dominate much of the subtropical
Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas
of 3-5 ft north of 27N and west of 65W, with the highest winds
and seas occurring off NE Florida. Moderate to locally fresh
SE winds are also noted across the offhsore waters of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and southern Bahamas along with moderate seas to 5 ft.
Farther east, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6
ft are noted off the coast of W Africa to 27W. Over the tropical
Atlantic, trades are moderate to fresh between 25W and the Lesser
Antilles. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated
ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then gradually
shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S
to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will continue
through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 29N between
74W and 80W Mon night and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with
light to gentle winds along the ridge axis.

$$
Ramos