490
AXNT20 KNHC 060744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Locally Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Cuba: A deep layered
upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the north-central
Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area
through Friday. This will support the generation of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, locally
heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Soils remain
saturated. So, the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
continues, especially in north-central Hispaniola this afternoon
and evening. The rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba will be
heavily influenced by daytime heating, local sea breezes and
mountain upslope lifting. Abundant moisture will remain in place,
spreading over most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands today as
another upper-level trough reaches Florida and the SE Gulf of
Mexico. Please refer to products from your local weather service
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W/34W from 11N
southward, and moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below.

A central tropical wave is near 46W from 11N southward, and
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 07N between 46W and 48W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from 14N southward to across
central Venezuela, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave
is enhancing convection over portions of central and eastern
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W then continues
southwestward to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 07N44W,
then from 07N47W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 10N between 10W and 34W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 35W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula is
enhancing winds to it`s west, at fresh to locally strong. A weak
surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf along the outer coastal
waters with light to gentle winds north of it and moderate to
locally fresh winds south of it. High pressure of 1013 mb is
analyzed in the NE Gulf near 28N85W with light to gentle winds
under it to the east of 87W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 89W, and 1
to 3 ft east of 89W. Haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in
Central America and Mexico continues to spread across the basin
with the greatest reductions to visibility found in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, weak ridging across the basin will support
mainly gentle to moderate winds through the next several days.
Winds will pulse to fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula at times.
Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and
Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days,
reducing visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times, mainly over the
southwestern half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a locally heavy rainfall event.

Weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic along 31N.
Meanwhile the monsoon trough is lifted north of it`s normal
location from the northern coast of Colombia to across Honduras
and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon
trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds north of the monsoon
trough, highest in the SE Caribbean. Seas are 1 to 3 ft west of
76W, except higher between Cuba and Jamaica in SE swell, and 4 to
6 ft east of 76W.

For the forecast, a deep layered upper-level trough from the W
Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the
Atlantic, with associated showers and thunderstorms spreading
from the north-central basin across the NE Caribbean through
today. Gentle to moderate E to SE trade winds will generally
prevail across the basin through today, locally fresh in the SE.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will return to SE portions of
the basin this evening through Fri then gradually shift across
south-central portions through the weekend, as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic. These winds may shift into the
NW Caribbean early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from 26N55W to near Hispaniola. This
surface feature is gradually becoming diffuse. High pressure of
1017 mb is north of the frontal trough centered near 29N62W. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds are found under the high north of 25N
between 55W and 70W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north
of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 20N and west
of 55W.

To the east of 55W, a cold front is from 31N47W to 22N60W with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60 to 120 nm
ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are north of
23N and east of the trough to around 40W, along with seas of 4 to
7 ft, locally to 8 ft near 31N between 45W and 48W. Another cold
front is analyzed from 31N23W to 28N37W, with scattered showers
possible near it, along with moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder
of the open tropical Atlantic waters, except moderate to fresh
north of 14N to 24N between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across these open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal trough will drift eastward
and weaken today. A deep-layered upper trough across the W
Atlantic extending from near Bermuda to the north-central
Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region today, maintaining
active thunderstorms between 55W and 70W. Weak high pressure will
begin to build across the basin in the wake of the upper trough
this afternoon, then shift slowly E-NE tonight through Fri night.
A weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and stall there
Sun.

$$
Lewitsky