531
FXUS61 KBGM 171658
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
1258 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions expected through the week, with the
worst conditions arriving Tuesday and persisting with little
relief through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Prior to the onset of extended heat and increasing humidity this
week, parts of the region (mainly the Finger Lakes and Central
Southern Tier) will be impacted by a compact upper level
disturbance (MCV) currently located over Lake Erie.

This feature will drift east this afternoon and help to initiate
isolated to scattered late afternoon and early evening showers
and thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes Region and Southern
Tier of New York, with little or no precipitation further to the
east.

SPC placed approximately the western 40 percent of the CWA in a
MRGL risk for severe later this afternoon into this evening as a
result of this remnant convective disturbance and the increase
in CAPE to between 1500-2000 j/kg. Best potential for SVR may be
across the Central Southern Tier where ML (0-1 KM) EHI values
reach around 1.5 M2/S2 late this afternoon and this evening.

Otherwise...an upper-level ridge continues to slowly move over
the region, and temperatures will begin to ramp up this
afternoon, with high temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s.
Temperatures will continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low
to mid 90s, with heat indices of 95 to 100. A Heat Advisory will
be in effect Noon Tuesday for portions of Central NY and NE PA,
and will last through Thursday evening. With overnight
temperatures not dipping much past 70 degrees, there won`t be
much relief from the hot and humid conditions.

One of the challenges for this forecast will be chances for
thunderstorms from perturbations riding on top of the ridge.
Chances for afternoon into late evening thunderstorms Tuesday
will be dependent on how strong the ridge is, and if it
positions itself in a way where these perturbations advect into
our area. Currently, there are only a few guidance solutions
that depict thunderstorm initiation for Tuesday late afternoon
into the evening, so there is a possibility for storms for
Central NY, mainly west of I-81. We`ll keep monitoring near-term
guidance for changes in solutions and chances for storm
initiation Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat dome remains overhead through the period. Overnight lows
will struggle to dip below 70 most places. High pressure will
dip a bit further south on Wednesday and this will allow flow to
become more out of the west-northwest and increase potential
for isolated thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night as our area will fall a bit closer to the
periphery of the high pressure system. Instability will likely
peak above 2000 J/kg during the daytime hours, and although
there will be some CIN, models are indicating potential for weak
perturbations within the flow that could be enough to break the
cap. The heat will still be an issue Wednesday with heat index
values near 100 or even above in urban areas. However,
thunderstorms may provide some brief relief where they occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The heat will continue into the extended period. Thursday will
be another hot day with most of the area approaching or
exceeding a 100F heat index once again. Thursday could end up
being the hottest day of the week, but this will be dependent on
afternoon convection.

Guidance suggests that 500mb heights could finally begin to
fall Friday into the upcoming weekend, which should lead to a
(subtle) cooling trend. However, heat indices could still
approach or exceed 100F across the southern potion of the CWA
Friday afternoon. Even into Sat and Sun, heat indices in the
valleys of southern NY and NE PA could still top out in the low
to mid 90s.

The falling heights will be accompanied by a slightly better chc
for daily convection Friday through the weekend, which would
also produce at least a bit of relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the bulk of the period at
all terminals. However, did introduce VCTS for KITH and KELM
later this afternoon into this evening as a compact upper level
disturbance drifts east from Lake Erie and helps to initiate
isolated TSRA across the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier
of NYS. SSW winds will be in the 6-10 kt range this afternoon
with some minor gusts into the low to mid teens through 23Z.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Friday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly
in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ009-015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ015>018.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/KL
NEAR TERM...Lambert/KL
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...CTP
AVIATION...Lambert