337
FXUS61 KBGM 132357
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
757 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring showers and a
chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High
pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
640 PM Update...
Overall little change to the forecast this evening. Winds were
adjusted down in the valleys overnight with chances of
precipitation delayed a few more hours as the rain showers west
of us have not progressed as fast as models had indicated

330 pm update...

A large high is off the coast which provided us with dry warmer
weather today. The high is moving further southeast. A strong
cold front over the upper Midwest and eastern Ontario moves
southeast tonight to move through our area Friday and Friday
evening. The models have slowed down the speed of the front an
hour or two otherwise the parameters are about the same.
Moisture and heat will be in place ahead of the front with
dewpoints in the 60s and highs 70s in CNY to low 80s for NEPA
valleys. Several waves move through making the timing difficult.
The twin tiers and NEPA could get a few rounds of convection.
Showers and thunderstorms move into our northern counties late
tonight but then die before getting far south. Midday convection
forms over south central NY and moves southeast well ahead of
the front. More convection is possible with the front late
afternoon in the twin tiers. The better chance of severe weather
is in NEPA and Sullivan County during the afternoon into the
early evening. This area with have the most heating and
instability. Cape will peak around 1k Joules. Deep bulk shear
will be 40 to 50 kts. Values will rise through the day.
Lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be
progressive and moving at around 35 kts. The SPC continues with
the slight chance of severe weather for damaging winds across
the far south with marginal in south central NY.

Precipitable water values peak around 1.6 inches. Given the dry
period of the last few days and vegetation in full swing, we
would need 2 inches or more in an hour before any flash flooding
happens, unless it falls on an urban area. We disagree with the
marginal risk of excessive rainfall from WPC.

Friday night the upper level trough is moving east into the area
with cold air aloft. Skies will clear and temperatures will fall
into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Precip will push east of the area by daybreak Saturday, with
upper level ridging and surface high pressure bringing a spell
of nice weather for the entire weekend. Northerly flow will keep
temperatures in the lower to middle-70s, perhaps creeping up
into the upper-70s in the Wyoming Valley. As high pressure
settles east of the area Sunday, southerly flow will begin to
bring warmer temperatures to the area, with highs climbing into
the upper-70s to lower-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM Update...

The warming trend established over the weekend will steepen
rapidly next week as upper level ridging over the Southeastern
CONUS builds northwards. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
park the subtropical ridge over the NY/PA border by Wednesday,
with 500 mb heights ranging from 598 to a whopping 600 dam. Very
hot and humid conditions continue to look likely, especially
Tue through at least Thursday next week. The main question is
whether or not showers and thunderstorms can break the heat on
any given day. The GFS is notably "wetter" in terms of scattered
QPF, while the ECMWF is much drier. Made few changes to
existing Slight Chance PoPs, though the drier solutions look
more likely heading towards Wednesday with the ridge directly
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A cold front moves through from north to south late tonight into
Friday afternoon. Showers will accompany the front, but ceilings
look to remain VFR with convective activity expected to be
mainly scattered allowing for too low of a confidence factor at
this time to include in the terminals, except at KAVP where the
best chance for higher instability and thunderstorms exists
mainly after 17Z-18Z. Otherwise, did not clutter the forecasts
with excessive occasional categories for showers as restrictions
are not showing very high signals. Also not expecting valley
fog at KELM overnight due to increased mixyness in the boundary
layer ahead of the front...but a short visibility dip during the
late evening-midnight hours can`t be completely ruled out ahead
of the stronger wind corridor.

S-SW winds drop less than 8 knots overnight. Winds shift to
west on Friday at 5 to 10 kts with some gustiness. A period of
LLWS affects KRME during the overnight as core of winds pushes
into the region over the up valley SE wind direction.

Outlook...

Friday night...Ceilings becoming VFR. Areas of dense valley fog
restrictions possible late.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC
NEAR TERM...AJG/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JAB/TAC