911
FXUS61 KBGM 181652
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1252 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through the week. A break in the
heat may not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1250 PM Update:

Cloud cover from convective debris and some cirrus have kept
temperatures a bit lower than previously forecasted, but dew
points are actually a bit higher than previously forecasted.
Made some minor adjustments to these, but forecast heat indices
remain nearly the same for this afternoon.

1105 AM Update:

Made some adjustments to PoPs for the remainder of this morning
through this afternoon, as some isolated thunderstorms have
already popped up due to ample instability. Similar to
yesterday, some of these storms may become strong to severe,
with gusty to damaging winds as the main threat. With slow storm
motions and elevated PWATs, some of these thunderstorms may
cause in localized flash flooding, so this will be monitored as
well.

545 AM Update...

Updated HWO to include the chance for strong thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Main concern is localized damaging winds
and flash flooding. Forecast soundings are showing some CIN
today, but plenty of instability if the cap can be broken. CAPE
of up to 3000 J/kg will be possible by the time we hit max
heating this afternoon. Upstream MCV could act as the catalyst
that kicks storms off again this afternoon across the area.
Considering the weak shear, main threat will be from collapsing
cores (downbursts) from the strongest storms. PWATs will
approach 2 inches and storms will be slow moving with weak flow
aloft, which could produce prolonged heavy downpours leading to
localized flash flooding.

350 AM Forecast...

Today the heat and humidity will increase across the region and
heat advisories remain in effect. Similar to yesterday,
thunderstorms will likely pop up during the afternoon and
persist into the evening. With dew point temperatures climbing
into the 70s and high temperatures well into the 90s, a very
unstable atmosphere will be in place once again due to the
strong heating. CAPE of 2500 to 3000 J/kg is likely. The
NAMNest, which handled the convection yesterday quite well, is
showing isolated to scattered thunderstorm development again
this afternoon, especially west of the I81 corridor. Any weak
perturbation riding up and over the ridge will be enough to kick
off storms today. Very little wind shear will be present,
however, forecast soundings show an inverted V, so there will
likely be some downburst potential if any cores can get high
enough before collapsing.

Another warm and rather muggy night is in store for the region
with variable amounts of mainly mid level clouds and a light
southerly wind. Some lingering thunderstorms overnight appears
like a possibility as CAPE will remain high in the 2000+ J/kg
range.

Wednesday, sticking with persistence for the forecast...hot,
humid and a chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update...

Any convection that lingers into Wednesday evening across CNY,
mainly around the Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk
Valley, is expected to diminish with the loss of daytime
heating. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm with
overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The
center of the strong upper ridge of high pressure is expected to
gradually shift to the south-southwest Thursday into Friday,
putting the CWA along the periphery of the ridge. Guidance does
show a couple of ripples of energy riding along the edge of the
ridge and enough surface-based instability to break any cap in
place, leading to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially during peak heating hours. Both the
GFS and Euro show pockets of surface-based CAPE values over 2000
J/kg each day. Areas that do see afternoon/evening
thunderstorms can get some brief relief from the heat, but with
dew points remaining elevated, it will still feel very humid.

Highs Thursday are expected to be from the upper 80s to the mid
90s with heat index values of 95 to near 100 degrees. Lows
Thursday night range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. With
the ridge slightly farther south Friday, highs are expected to
be a little lower over CNY in the mid and upper 80s, but the
Twin Tiers and much of NE PA can still see highs in the low to
mid 90s and heat index values near or exceeding 100 degrees, so
it is possible the heat advisory is extended in these areas
late week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 AM Update...

Little change in the overall pattern is expected Saturday with
high temperatures continuing to lower slightly, and afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms popping up as more pieces
of energy stream along the northern edge of the ridge. Highs
Saturday are expected to be in the low and mid 80s across CNY
and in the mid and upper 80s for much of NE PA.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to increase Sunday
into Monday with an upper level trough and surface cold front
approaching from the west. This front would help to bring more
relief from the heat early next week not just in terms of
daytime highs but more comfortable overnight lows as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fog has set in at ELM, however it should dissipate in the first
hour or two of the forecast. Otherwise. mostly VFR conditions
are expected today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be
popping up across the area again today this afternoon and
evening, however, confidence is too low at this time to add in
the TAF at any one location. Winds will be light through the
period outside of any showers or thunderstorms.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly
in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG/DK
AVIATION...MPK