328
FXUS61 KBGM 150519
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
119 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through this afternoon will bring rain
showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the
main threat in northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. High
pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this
weekend. Next week will be hot and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...

A weak boundary pushed through and few showers and thunderstorms
developed across NEPA and are moving to the ESE. A couple cells
looked like they may have briefly produced some pea size hail,
but the lifespan of these cells is quick given the lack of
organizing shear. Isolated showers and some thunder will be
possible for the next hour or two as some instability lingers.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.

630 PM Update...

Storms have cleared the area to the east, with some lingering
showers remaining across Pike and Sullivan counties. Guidance is
showing another round of isolated showers developing across the
Western Twin Tiers and swinging through the southern Catskills
and Poconos this evening, and this is backed up by radar
starting to show these showers developing. A rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out with these showers as we still have CAPE
values of 500-700j/kg over this area. Any severe weather that
could develop should be south of our area, where a much better
shear profile is present. Temps through the evening were
adjusted based on the current obs and high res guidance. This
bumped values up a few degrees in NY and lowered them around the
Wyoming Valley where rain has cooled the area into the low to
mid 60s.



230 PM UPDATE...

The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Behind this is
drier stable air ahead of the cold front. There is very little
moisture and no instability in CNY. Showers in NEPA and the
western Catskills don`t have much to work with. The showers
remain low topped and mostly light for now. Strong thunderstorms
from the northwest will move into the far south soon. The
initial trough should slow. The best chance of thunderstorms
remain in NEPA and Sullivan County PA. In CNY convection could
be isolated at best. Lowered pops and dewpoints here.

In NEPA and Sullivan County there is instability and moisture.
With clouds temperatures remain in the 70s but dewpoints are in
the 60s. There is still some chance of damaging winds with the
thunderstorms which will move through Luzerne and maybe further
north.

Showers move southeast out of the area this evening. Late
tonight into Saturday night will be dry and cooler. High
pressure will build into the area Saturday night. Temperatures
will fall into the 50s tonight and 40s Saturday night. Highs
Saturday will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
210 PM Update:

High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny on
Sunday. With the building ridge still located west of the
region, one last day with temperatures near-normal is expected
before the heat builds in for the remainder of the week. Highs
are expected to be in the lower 70s to near 80. Then mostly
clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. These will be the coolest lows our region will have
for the remainder of the week.

A strengthening ridge moves overhead on Monday, which will bring
much warmer temperatures. Widespread highs in the 80s are
expected, with lower 90s in the valleys. Dew points will be on
the rise too (into the 60s). Otherwise, mainly dry conditions
are expected, although cannot rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes Region in the afternoon.
Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s is
expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM Update:

In terms of precipitation, the long term period will be fairly
quiet. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out each day due to daytime heating, but with the ridge
dominating, any organized shower or thunderstorm activity is
very unlikely. By the end of the week (Friday), a shortwave
riding along the edge of the ridge may bring some more organized
shower and thunderstorm activity, although even this is far from
a certainty.

The main story for the long term period will be the prolonged
heat. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s (and even
some upper 90s) is expected each day Tuesday through Friday. Dew
points will also be quite high; mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will result in heat indices well into the 90s, and
likely exceeding 100 degrees in the valleys. Heat headlines will
likely be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR for most of the sites through the night. With dry air
expected to advect into central NY, valley fog is not
anticipated at ELM. However, with recent heavy downpours, AVP
will see some patchy fog through the night.

Variable/light winds overnight will become NNW to N around 10
knots on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC
NEAR TERM...JTC/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL