560
FXUS63 KBIS 262040
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely through the evening, becoming
  more isolated tonight. An isolated strong storm is possible
  with small and gusty winds.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could return
  on Memorial Day. High temperatures will generally be in the
  60s. Some breezy northwest winds may be found across the
  south.

- Generally dry conditions and warming temperatures to be found
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Later Wednesday through the end of the work week,
  precipitation chances return while temperatures remain near to
  slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Shortwave trough wrapping around a stalled upper low in Canada
will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. A few of these storms could be strong as MUCAPE of near
1000 J/KG will be found. The skinny cape profile though should
make large hail tough, as well as the overall lack of shear.
Expect more pulse like thunderstorms that may be strong briefly
then diminish, and could produce hail of a half inch to an inch.
Inverted V soundings and small amounts of DCAPE could also
promote some gusty winds of 50 to perhaps 60 MPH in the
strongest storms. Once the wave moves more eastward later this
evening through tonight showers and thunderstorms should become
more isolated tonight. Lingering cloud cover should keep
overnight lows in the 40s, limiting the frost potential. There
could be some lower clouds or perhaps patchy fog tonight. Fog is
not in the forecast at this time, although northern and eastern
areas do have some potential for this to occur. The main upper
low in Canada looks to move southward on Memorial Day extending
a trough into North Dakota. This could bring some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability looks even less
for Monday, with shear also remaining low. Thus severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time. THe increased
gradient could bring some breezy northwest winds on Memorial
Day, mainly south and east. Look for temperatures to be slightly
below normal and in the 60s. Skies go on a clearing trend Monday
night, with wind also going light. This could bring some cool
temperatures and perhaps some patchy fog. Lows in the upper 30s
to upper 40s are forecast. Perhaps some patchy frost could
return to the north central if overnight lows dip further, which
will have to monitored.

Tuesday, a building ridge will bring mainly clear skies and dry
conditions. Areas closer to the ridge in the west will see
warming temperatures, while eastern areas remain in the
northwest flow pattern and see cooler temperatures in the 60s.
Ridge starts out overhead on Wednesday, with a transition to
southwest flow aloft throughout the day. A developing low lee of
the northern Rockies could bring tight pressure gradient. This
could bring a warm yet breezy to windy southerly flow. This
unsettled setup could also return showers and thunderstorms to
the west Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and shear
go on the increase during this time period, perhaps bringing
some strong to severe thunderstorms as also indicated by the
CSU-MLP. A front and the upper wave then looks to move through
on Thursday. CSU-MLP also showing the possibility of severe
weather when this does so, which will also have to be monitored.
A breezy southerly wind could become a breezy westerly wind
depending on the timing of this wave. Warm temperatures on
Wednesday may also linger into Thursday, also depending on
timing.

An upper low may then linger across southern Canada through much
of the upcoming weekend. The resultant westerly flow could
continue to bring near to slightly above normal temperatures.
This unsettled pattern could also bring some showers and
thunderstorms, although predictability at this point is low and
the NBM generally maintains slight pops at times through this
time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms through this evening could bring some
impacts to area TAF sites. Overall VFR conditions are expected
during this time period, although any shower/thunderstorm could
briefly produce MVFR to IFR conditions. Coverage today looks to
be isolated to scattered. Thus use VCTS and TEMPO groups for
precipitation mention. Tonight into Memorial Day morning, shower
and thunderstorms become more isolated. VFR conditions could
become MVFR with lower clouds expected to move into the area.
Light winds today will become northwest tonight and perhaps
breezy on Memorial Day.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin