119
FXUS64 KBMX 211707
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Little day-to-day variability in sensible weather conditions will
continue through Sunday due to the presence of a deep-layer
ridge. As the center of a 500 mb ridge in Texas nudged eastward on
Friday, height rises corresponded with an increase in temperatures.
Very weak flow in the surface to 700 mb suggests little in the
way of temperature advection, meaning the airmass will continue to
cook through the weekend beneath subsident anticyclonically-curved
flow. Therefore, temperatures should to be a degree or two higher
today, and similar numbers are expected for Sunday. The majority
of the forecast area should experience afternoon highs ranging
from 92 to 95 degrees.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

The Gulf Coast ridge will keep central Alabama dry and toasty
through Monday. Global long range models have been pretty
consistent in breaking down or weakening the ridge starting next
Tuesday, which ultimately leads to (small) rain chances coming
back into the forecast through the mid-week period.

What is not consistent is what happens after that. There`s the
general idea of an upper level trough either digging into or
swinging across the nation`s midsection. Unfortunately, there`s a
pretty big difference in the subsequent ramifications on either
side of that "or", not only on our weather toward the end of the
work week, but also on how that trough interacts with anything of
a tropical nature that the models continue to hint at coming into
the Gulf. Wait and see, and play the 20-30 percent POPs game,
seems to be the prudent choice at this juncture.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect scattered
cumulus to again develop this afternoon as rain-free conditions
continue. Low-level winds will be from the north to northeast at
3-6 kts. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with light east to
southeast winds at 2-4 kts. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop
during the day Sunday with low-level winds from the south to
southwest at 3-6 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through Monday as high pressure
prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass
in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent
each afternoon through Monday. 20 foot winds will be variable at
less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  92  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    67  91  70  92 /   0  10   0   0
Birmingham  69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      67  91  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      68  90  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  68  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        67  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05