Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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614 FXUS64 KBMX 181731 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024 Tranquil but hot and dry weather will be the story throughout the short-term period. The very broad upper level ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to build, with upper level heights increasing across the southern Appalachian states. Dry air has advected westward, especially evident just above 700mb as measured by the 12z KBMX sounding. No convective development is expected today as a result, with a more comfortable easterly flow at the surface. The dry air aloft is mixing to the surface in some locations, dropping dewpoints down into the 50s. In most cases, dewpoint observations are in the low to mid 60s with scattered to broken fair weather cumulus. Highs remain on track to top out in the lower 90s in most locations with easterly winds between 10 and 15mph. Partly cloudy skies can be expected tonight, with mostly high clouds streaming across the region with lows in the lower 70s. Wednesday is expected to be a rinse and repeat forecast, as the drier easterly flow continues with no rain chances. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024 A 500 mb ridge over the Mid-Atlantic region will begin migrating southwestward on Thursday. Deep-layer easterlies south of this ridge will provide a fetch of relatively dry air through Friday with PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range. As the 500 mb ridge moves over Deep South, the moderating effects of easterly flow will wane as low- level flow weakens. Temperatures are expected to upward from the 89-92 degree range on Thursday, to the mid 90s for Friday through Sunday. Meanwhile, enhanced moisture associated with a weakening tropical wave may arrive in South Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and possibly into Southeast Alabama. Any showers and storms on Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southeastern part of our area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection may occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture advection. Though there is disagreement on the mid-level pattern on Monday, models are in general agreement on weak height falls and moistening of the atmosphere across the Deep South. As a result, showers and storms could become more numerous on Monday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Easterly surface winds between 10 and 15 knots will continue this afternoon diminishing overnight. Very similar conditions are expected through the day on Wednesday. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free conditions will return today through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the region. This will lead to a downtrend in RH values into the 35 to 45 percent range each day. Easterly 20 ft winds will range from 7 to 12 mph through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 69 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 91 71 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 91 74 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 90 74 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 92 73 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 89 71 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 90 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 90 71 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...56/GDG