Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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821 FXUS64 KBMX 171125 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024 In the short-term, big upper level ridge centered in the Carolinas early in the period will start its migration northward. Slightly lowered heights here should lead to a modest abatement of high temperatures compared to the previous couple days (lower/mid 90s versus mid/upper 90s). Tropical moisture will also continue to get guided into the state from the Gulf, especially on the western periphery of the ridge. This should lead to an increase in diurnal convection coverage this afternoon west of I-65. An easterly low level flow on Tuesday will help continue the moderating trend in temperatures. Interestingly, that easterly flow also looks like it is going to help push the tropical moisture plume even farther west, leaving dry conditions for central Alabama on Tuesday. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024 An exceptionally strong 500 mb ridge will be in place over the northeastern United States on Wednesday and Thursday. Our area will be on the southern periphery of the ridge where easterly deep-layer flow will be associated with a relatively dry and moderated Atlantic airmass. Dewpoints in the 60s and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Wednesday and Thursday. The moderating effects of easterly flow will wane for Friday and Saturday as flow weakens, leading to temperatures trending upward into the mid 90s. A tropical wave is expected to weaken as it moves westward towards coastal Florida and Georgia on Friday and Saturday with only a minimal increase in PWAT values over Alabama. Any showers and storms on Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southern part of the area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection may occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture advection. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024 Will keep conditions VFR through the next 24 hour TAF period in central Alabama. There`s a few echoes showing up this morning on area radars, but any rain making it down to the ground is quite light and should not result in any ceiling or visibility restrictions. Best thunderstorm chances will be in the western third of the area, and decided to keep the only mention of TSRA in the TAFs at TCL. Otherwise, fair weather cumulus in the lower levels, and a blanket of high level clouds up above. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be confined mainly west of Interstate 65 today. 20ft winds will be from the southeast at 6 to 9 mph, and RH values should range from 40 to 60 percent this afternoon. Rain-free conditions will return for Tuesday through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the region. This will lead to a downtrend in RH values into the 35 to 45 percent range each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 70 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 Anniston 93 71 90 69 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 93 74 91 73 / 30 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 91 74 90 72 / 40 20 0 0 Calera 93 73 91 71 / 30 10 0 0 Auburn 91 71 87 69 / 10 10 0 0 Montgomery 93 73 90 72 / 20 10 0 0 Troy 93 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.../61/ LONG TERM....87 AVIATION.../61/