379
FXUS64 KBMX 021818
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
118 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Central Alabama remains in a fairly moist and stagnant weather
pattern through the short term period. A surface ridge is
currently centered over the southwestern Atlantic with a weak
southerly flow present across the Deep South. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough axis has moved east over the Mid-Atlantic states with
westerly flow aloft over much of the Southeast. Isentropic lift
during the overnight hours produced widespread low stratus clouds,
that are still hanging on as we approach midday for locations
along the I-20 corridor. In the meantime, isolated to scattered
showers with a few storms have developed this morning from
leftover mesoscale boundary interactions. As daytime heating
continues to increase through the afternoon, a few storms will be
capable of producing gusty winds as SBCAPE increases to 2500-3000
J/kg with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, especially across western and
southwestern portions of Central Alabama. Even though the storms
will be pulse-like in nature, Effective Bulk Shear around 20 knots
may keep updrafts going a little longer before they collapse. Due
to a lack of organized forcing, storms should remain below severe
limits, but wouldn`t rule out the issuance of some Special Weather
Statements with 40mph wind gusts later this afternoon.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight tonight as showers and
storms diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low
stratus clouds and fog development appears likely as ground
conditions remain fairly wet. Areas with the best chance for fog
will be across eastern and northeastern counties where clouds have
hung on the longest into the afternoon with less time for sunshine
to dry out the surface. We`ll need to monitor observation trends
through the evening for the potential of issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory during the overnight hours.

Low clouds and fog will mix out through Monday morning, giving way
to a very warm afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Only isolated
showers and storms are currently in the forecast, as upper level
ridging sets up over the region. The next upper level shortwave
impulse to our west will pivot to the northeast, keeping most
organized showers and storms well to our northwest through Monday
evening. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

High pressure shifts to our east as weak upper level troughing
pushes southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon on
Tuesday with the best chances across the northwestern half of
Central AL due to proximity of the shortwave. The main trough axis
will slide through the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to
increased rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially in the
afternoons.

As we approach the end of the week, uncertainty increases on the
evolution of the main upper trough as guidance has been pretty
consistent in showing a frontal boundary pushing southward through
Central AL. However, the timing of that frontal passage has been
quite variable leading to low confidence in the forecast for Friday
into Saturday. The details of when the front will push through
Central AL and what that means in terms of thunderstorm activity
will need to be worked out in coming days when model guidance comes
into better agreement on the timing.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

MVFR conditions are lingering at a few terminals at 18z, but
expected to become VFR for everyone shortly. Scattered SHRA will
continue through the afternoon with some TSRA, but have not
included any mention of TSRA in the TAF at this time. A few
amendments aren`t out of the question if a storm develops close to
a terminal, but activity will be very summer-like in nature with
some variable wind gusts possible. SHRA/TSRA activity will
diminish during the evening with a good chance of MVFR to IFR
stratus/fog development between 08z and 13z Monday morning at many
locations. Fog and low stratus should mix out by 14z with VFR
conditions expected during the day on Monday with light winds.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today.
Generally light southerly winds will persist through Tuesday.  RH
values will remain above 50 for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  65  87  66 /  30  20  20  10
Anniston    83  66  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
Birmingham  84  68  88  69 /  30  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  86  69  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Calera      84  68  87  69 /  30  20  20  10
Auburn      80  67  85  69 /  40  30  20  10
Montgomery  85  67  87  69 /  40  30  20  10
Troy        85  66  87  68 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...56/GDG