926
FXUS64 KBMX 302040
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
340 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

This afternoon.

A high-amplitude pattern is in place across the country with an
upper low over far Southeast canada while amplified ridging
extended over much of the Central Plains while another upper low
was moving over Northern Montana. Expansive surface high pressure
was analyzed across much of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley
Regions while a cold front was analyzed extending from North Texas
through the ArkLaTex and southeast to near New Orleans and east
across the Northern Gulf Coast to near Tampa.

A few shortwaves in the west to northwest flow pattern in the mid
levels are moving over our southwest and south-central counties,
providing sufficient uplift within a deep moist column to support
isolated to scattered shower activity. There may be a few
thunderstorms, but this potential is on the low side. Expect this
scenario to continue through the afternoon hours. Further to the
north and northeast, surface high pressure and low- level west
winds will result in less clouds and continued dry conditions
today. Overall, winds will be from the east to southeast south,
with west to northwest winds north. Wind speeds will be from 4-8
mph this afternoon. High temperatures will range from closer to 80
where clouds persist and in the higher elevations east and
northeast to readings in the mid 80s where there are fewer clouds
and in lower elevations.

Tonight.

High amplitude ridging will migrate further east overnight, with
the narrow ridge axis extending roughly over much of the
Mississippi River Valley Region. Expansive surface high pressure
will remain to our north and will build eastward with time through
the night while the cold front to our southwest across the
ArkLaTex becomes stationary. Some drier air will move into our
northeast counties and the subsidence will help keep skies clear
while much of the clouds will become more confined to our
southwest counties. It is also in this area where some isolated
shower activity may persist through the night. Winds will become
more east to northeast with time with speeds from 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s northeast with
the coolest values in the more sheltered valley locations, to
readings in the mid 60s across the southwest half of the area.

Friday.

The longwave ridge axis will move east over the area on Friday
with surface high pressure contracting and moving toward the
Eastern Great Lakes Region as the stationary front returns
northeast as a warm front across the Southern Plains and into the
Lower Mississippi Valley Region. The result will be increasing
clouds from the southwest that will expand north and east through
the day accompanied by growing chances for some shower and
thunderstorm activity far west initially then expanding eastward
behind the ridging as it moves further east of the area. Winds
will become southeast with speeds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures
will range from the low 80s in the higher elevations far east to
near 90 southwest and far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Changes this afternoon in the long term were mainly to adjust rain
chances for the weekend, with an increase in coverage Saturday
afternoon and night. There remains some timing and strength
differences for the shortwave moving through the region, so alot
of uncertainty remains will the POP forecast.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Upper level shortwave will scoot across the Ohio Valley over the
weekend. While much of the lift associated with this feature will
stay to our north, it will still provide enough lift here to cause
increased POPs -- into the high chance/likely range. Looks like both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be the timeframes to watch, with
respect to both coverage of thunderstorms and the possibility of a
few stronger storms given the amount of instability. Beyond the
weekend, timing differences in the models on low amplitude features
will result in a return to more climo-based POPs. With the upper
level pattern across the southeast states being zonal to slightly
northwest, no extremes in temperatures are anticipated at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Clouds will be more widespread and thicker over the south and
southwest, while fewer clouds will persist across the far north
and northeast today. A few showers will remain possible around MGM
and TOI, with chances too low to mention at TCL and EET while
conditions should remain dry at BHM/ASN/ANB. Chances for showers
will decrease overnight but the potential will linger across the
far southwest with at least scattered clouds, generally southwest
of TCL to MGM. Expect scattered clouds areawide on Friday with
chances for some shower activity across much of the area, but
potential remains too low to mention for this issuance.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated rain chances exist through Friday night, with most of
the area remaining dry. Minimum RH values in the 38 to 48 percent
range are expected tomorrow, with 20ft southeasterly winds at
6-8mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend along with
increased RH values, with 20ft winds becoming southerly but
remaining less than 10mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  86  62  83 /   0  20  10  50
Anniston    60  86  64  83 /   0  20   0  40
Birmingham  65  87  69  83 /  10  20  10  60
Tuscaloosa  66  89  68  83 /  10  20  10  70
Calera      63  87  67  82 /  10  20  10  60
Auburn      64  85  65  82 /  10  10   0  30
Montgomery  64  88  68  84 /  10  10  10  50
Troy        64  88  67  86 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05