Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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380 FXUS64 KBMX 212007 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 307 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024 A 596dam ridge is situated over the Tennessee Valley with deep easterly flow across the area. Deeper moisture is present to our east associated with a tropical low just off the coast of Georgia/Florida, but a much drier airmass is in place over the Southeast. The ridge will slowly shift westward through tomorrow, but temperatures will trend gradually warmer over the next couple of days with highs in the mid to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies. The tropical low is forecast to move onshore tonight. Most of the moisture and higher rain chances will remain to our east, but there`s a small chance of a shower or storm in our far southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024 Not much change in the extended this afternoon, with dry conditions prevailing trough Sunday. With a weak boundary working southward through the area Monday and Tuesday, rain chances will increase. The added moisture will send heat indices into the 100-108F range both afternoons. Much better rain chances exist Wednesday into Thursday with the approach of a mid level trough and surface front. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024 Key message: - Hot conditions continue into next week with heat indices near 105 possible, especially Tuesday afternoon. The center of the subtropical ridge will retrograde southwestward towards the Southern High Plains on Sunday, while a couple shortwaves move through the Great Lakes and New England. At the surface, low pressure will move eastward across northern New England with a trailing cold front over the Ohio Valley and a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Central Alabama looks to remain in a dry air mass Sunday between the pre-frontal moisture axis over Kentucky and Tennesse and remnant tropical moisture over southeast Georgia. Weak westerly low-level flow should be favorable for high temperatures in the upper 90s but dew points should mix enough to keep heat indices below 105. A couple showers and storms developing ahead of the front along outflow boundaries might reach the northern counties late Sunday night and Monday morning but the front will be dissipating. Slightly higher rain chances may exist across the southern counties Monday afternoon along and south of the weak lee trough. The boundary moving through may keep temperatures in the mid 90s vs the upper 90s, but dew points will begin to creep up and heat indices may approach 105 in a few spots. The remnant boundary/moisture gradient will remain over the area Tuesday and may lift northeastward a bit. Scattered showers and storms will be possible along and south of the boundary. Temperatures should warm back into the upper 90s prior to convection developing. Will have to watch dew point trends as this appears to be the day with the best chance of needing a heat advisory if dew points don`t mix out too much. Northwest flow aloft continues Wednesday between ridging over the Four Corners and weak troughing over the Southeast. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough may move out of the Central Plains, with some guidance indicating a potential MCS. Rain chances look highest on Wednesday with hot and humid conditions ahead of any storms. Showers and storms may continue into Thursday depending on the timing of the shortwave with heat indices beginning to trend downward slightly. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024 Strong ridging is centered over the Tennessee Valley resulting in VFR aviation conditions. Some cumulus has developed this afternoon and some high clouds will pass across the area tonight, but no restrictions are expected. Surface winds are from the east at 5 to 8 kts then calm winds are expected after 01Z. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Other than a stray storm or two in the extreme southeast tomorrow, dry conditions will continue through Sunday. 20 foot winds will be light and variable tomorrow, and become westerly Sunday at 4 to 8 mph. Afternoon RH values should range from 30 to 40 percent each day through Sunday. Overnight RH values will be above 80 percent. Better rain chances return on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 95 69 97 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 68 95 71 96 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 73 97 74 99 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 71 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 70 97 73 98 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 71 94 73 96 / 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 69 96 72 97 / 0 10 0 10 Troy 68 96 71 97 / 0 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...86