661
FXUS64 KBMX 191644
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1144 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

Today`s weather should be very similar to yesterday with little
change in the placement of synoptic features and overall pattern.
Flow in the surface to 500 mb layer over Alabama will have weak
cyclonic curvature as a trough slowly shifts eastward across the
eastern CONUS. Most locations will see afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

A 500 mb ridge over Texas will become more prominent on Friday as
it amplifies and shifts eastward. Deep-layer flow will become
more anticyclonic over our area, leading to subsidence, a
reduction in PWAT values, and temperatures reaching the lower 90s
across most of the forecast area.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

With an upper level ridge building into the southeast states at
the start of the long term, conditions will remain dry with a
gradual warming trend for central Alabama. There`s a shortwave
trough (or series of troughs) that is forecast to scoot across the
top of the ridge early next week, which could tease us with a
cold front. However, model blends suggest we will remain rain free
until at least Tuesday, and even then chances don`t get any
higher than 20 or 30 percent.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Fair weather
cumulus will develop over much of the area through the afternoon
hours but dry conditions are forecast areawide due to strong
subsidence in the mid levels. Low-level winds will be from the
northwest at 3-6 kts. Overnight, expect fair skies with potential
for some brief reduction in visibility across portions of the
northwest and eastern areas before sunrise Friday morning. Fair
skies are forecast through the morning on Friday with low-level
winds from the northeast at 3-6 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through the weekend as high
pressure takes hold. With temperatures climbing back into the 90s
and a modestly dry airmass in place, RH values should range from
35 to 45 percent each afternoon through Sunday. 20 foot winds will
remain less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    88  63  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  88  65  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  65  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      88  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      87  66  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  66  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...05