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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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625 FXUS64 KBMX 161728 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024 A hot and sultry summer day will be on tap across Central Alabama for our Sunday, with a scattering of summer convection to keep an eye on. On the synoptic scale, a 500mb ridge remains off to the east, centered over the Carolinas. Southerly to southeasterly flow will persist across much of the atmospheric profile, with the deepest moisture currently present along the immediate Gulf Coast. An almost diffuse stationary boundary is being analyzed across the northeastern portions of Alabama, Central Tennessee, and northern Georgia. 12z KBMX RAOB data measured a plentiful amount of dry air aloft from 550mb to 300mb as the upper ridge continues to build to our east. As southerly to southeasterly flow increases through the afternoon and into the early evening hours between the 850-750mb layers, sufficient moisture is expected to stream northwestward into our southern and southwest counties. Synoptic- scale lift in the form of a 500mb vort max will combine with mesoscale-driven convective initiation and boundary interactions this afternoon. At least scattered showers and storms are expected as a result across southern and southwestern counties through the afternoon and early evening. Storms that have already developed across the Gulf Coast are sending outflow boundaries northward which will aid in convective development as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 90s this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will remain possible elsewhere, especially for locations closer to the stalled boundary in the northeast counties. As we observed yesterday, any of these storms that develop will be strong, capable of producing microburst-like winds and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated severe storm certainly can`t be ruled out. SBCAPE values are expected to rise into the 3000-4000 J/kg range across the south this afternoon, coupled with dry air aloft and DCAPE between 1000-1200 J/kg. Based on how storm development materializes later this afternoon, PoPs may need to be increased, especially across the southwest counties. Showers and storms will linger for a couple of hours after sunset due to mesoscale boundary collisions and interactions and then diminish overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight with southeasterly flow aloft continuing. The upper ridge will continue to build and broaden over the Mid-Atlantic states during the day on Monday. As 700mb flow becomes more easterly by Monday afternoon, drier air will advect westward from Georgia and the Carolinas. Due to the influence from the upper ridge, PoPs will be more isolated across the eastern counties, while scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible across the western counties, as 500mb shortwave activity and highest PWATs will still exist. Temperatures are expected to be a tad cooler Monday afternoon, but most folks won`t notice much of a difference as highs top out in the low to mid 90s. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024 A highly anomalous and potentially unprecedented deep-layer ridge to our east, will expand on Tuesday, with its center shifting from North Carolina to near New York City. As the ridge remains nearly stationary through Thursday, 500 mb heights may reach an incredible 600 dam. At the southern periphery of the ridge, drier air circulating around the ridge will move into Alabama from the east. PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches on Tuesday and persist through Thursday. The easterly flow from the Atlantic should serve to moderate temperatures as well. NBM temperatures are well above MEX guidance through the long term period, which does not seem reasonable given reduced 850 mb temperatures and low-level thickness values. Therefore, this update undercuts NBM by 2 to 5 degrees for afternoon highs and 1 to 3 degrees for morning lows, for Tuesday through Saturday. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday. This may bring an increase in rain chances that could continue into Saturday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the forecast period. SHRA/TSRA development will be possible for the southern terminals of MGM and TOI later this afternoon, but we don`t have enough confidence of including TS in the TAF just yet. Prevailing surface winds this afternoon will be from the southeast between 5 and 10 knots. Clouds are expected to linger through the overnight hours, but remain above MVFR criteria at this time. A few observations of MVFR stratus aren`t out of the question at TCL, MGM, and TOI between 09z and 12z Monday morning. We`ll keep an eye on observation and guidance trends through the evening to determine if forecast updates are needed. VFR conditions were kept in the forecast through the planning period with highest SHRA/TSRA chances at TCL by 18z Monday afternoon. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although spatial coverage looks to be somewhat limited. 20-foot winds will be southeasterly up to 6-8 mph each day through Tuesday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected to drop into the 35-45 percent range Sunday and remain above 40 percent on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 96 70 94 70 / 20 10 20 10 Anniston 96 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 0 Birmingham 96 73 93 73 / 20 10 30 10 Tuscaloosa 96 73 91 74 / 20 20 40 10 Calera 96 73 93 72 / 20 10 30 10 Auburn 94 73 91 71 / 20 10 20 0 Montgomery 96 73 94 73 / 40 20 30 10 Troy 95 71 93 71 / 40 30 30 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...56/GDG