Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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741 FXUS64 KBMX 241146 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 646 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024 Watching a MCS move ever so close to the CWA this morning to our south. On a whole the MCS is decaying as it slides into the drier airmass to our south and east. To our west, is another developing MCS that will begin to approach the area late this morning. We should see some expansion north over the next few hours with this complex. The consensus of the models bring the system into our area by Noon and then slide the new MCS southward through the northern 2/3rds of the area during the day. This is still fairly close to the track from yesterdays guidance. With this timing we do have a chance at seeing strong to marginally severe storms Friday afternoon and early evening. Right now as early as 12 PM in the northern counties and 4 to 5 PM for the Birmingham metro, then 5 to 6 PM for Clanton. We will need to monitor the trends for areas south of the I-85 corridor to see if the threat continues into these areas. Based on current timing, the severe threat would be over by 9 or 10 PM. Another round of showers and storms will likely develop in Arkansas this afternoon and then slide through the area overnight. With the later timing of the first round this afternoon, the area should be fairly worked over, so widespread severe storms are not expected. There could be some strong storms and we will be monitoring as needed. This second round would create a bubble over the area, keeping most of the activity to our south on Saturday. This is a complete flip flop from the concern yesterday. So right now, the severe threat on Saturday is more of a conditional marginal risk. If the path of the next 2 MCSs are forecast correctly, then a band of showers and storms will develop in or around the I-85 corridor on Saturday, on the south-side of the bubble high that would set up across the north. The main front associated with the MCS train will remain to the north. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024 A weakening cold front begins to slow to our northwest Sunday as the main low pressure system lifts through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. For Central AL, it will be hot and humid ahead of the boundary, though it still unclear whether the front actual pushes into our area. We`ll have to keep an eye on a possible MCS coming down during the daytime on Sunday given the hot/humid conditions and the convection along the front upstream. More details on that will become available as we get closer. For now, there could be strong to severe storms again Sunday, but there`s quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing. We might have continued storm chances Monday and Tuesday before the main trough finally pushes to our east, but again, mesoscale details will need to be worked out in the coming days. Slightly cooler and drier air builds in by roughly midweek leading to rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024 A few shortwave troughs move through the zonal flow aloft during the period. The best moisture will be north and therefore that is where the pops will be mentioned. A few showers and thunderstorms may approach the northern terminals after 15z and have PROB30 mention after 18z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected most of the time at most locations. Winds become 5-10 kts by 15z. Another round of showers and storms may move through after 6z, but not confident enough to include. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Several opportunities for rain and storms through the weekend, as several impulses provide focus for convection, with enhanced coverage during the afternoon and evening, especially across northern counties. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at less than 10 mph through Sunday. Min RH value will be near or above 50% through Sunday, with overnight recoveries near 100%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 86 65 88 66 / 60 50 40 20 Anniston 88 67 88 69 / 60 60 40 20 Birmingham 89 70 89 71 / 60 60 40 20 Tuscaloosa 89 70 91 71 / 40 60 30 10 Calera 88 70 88 70 / 40 60 40 20 Auburn 87 70 86 70 / 30 50 30 10 Montgomery 90 71 90 71 / 20 40 30 10 Troy 90 70 90 70 / 20 30 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...16