Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
584 FXUS64 KBMX 031041 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 541 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 128 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025 Weak surface high pressure, and a northwest upper flow (with no obvious upstream MCS systems) will keep conditions dry across all of central Alabama today and tonight, and all but (perhaps) the far southeast portion of the area on Friday. Temperatures both days pretty close to seasonal normals. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 128 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025 Over the weekend, an upper level ridge is forecast to build to our north over the Ohio valley, putting us on the southern periphery. This will lead to a gradual increase in low level moisture levels, and less mid-level subsidence, which in turn will allow for a gradual return to a more diurnally active convection regime to spread northward across the CWA. With the increased moisture levels also comes higher heat index levels. Ensemble based probabilistic schemes suggest that by the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday or next week, there`s a chance that afternoon apparent temperatures could approach 100 degrees, especially in the southwestern portion of our forecast area (Sumter, Greene, Hale, Marengo Counties -ish). /61/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front is situated to our south, and dry air will continue to filter in to the area today. Min RH will remain well above critical thresholds through the weekend, with generally light winds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 67 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 Anniston 89 68 92 70 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 89 69 92 72 / 0 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 90 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 90 70 92 72 / 0 0 10 0 Auburn 91 72 91 72 / 0 0 20 10 Montgomery 91 70 93 72 / 0 0 20 10 Troy 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION.../44/