Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 292321
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

More recent model guidance shows the potential for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across southern and central areas
during the morning and daytime hours tomorrow. Have increased PoPs
spatially during this time period, but remained at slight chance
for now. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid.

12

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

High pressure will be over the southeast through tomorrow. Dry
weather and increasing clouds will be the main story for today,
with high temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of
year. Overnight through early Thursday, a shortwave will move
across the state, with models showing different resolutions of how
widely scattered activity will be through the morning. Most of the
western half of the state could see scattered rain with isolated
thunder, though instabilities will be limited. Any activity
should quickly weaken into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
several degrees low with expected increase in cloud cover and
northerly flow continuing over the state.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

Model trends continue to show mostly dry conditions through the
week, as zonal to northwesterly flow continues aloft. Impulses
driving convection weaken as they cross the Lower Mississippi
River Valley, leaving very little chance for rain for the end of
the work week. For Saturday and Sunday, a stronger
shortwave/closed low will move through the Mississippi River
Valley toward the Ohio River Valley. There is a large amount of
uncertainty in strength, timing, and track of this wave, which
leads to a low confidence forecast for rain chances over the
weekend and into next week. Highs will generally be in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period.
However, on Thursday, scattered showers and a rumble of thunder
are possible, especially at TCL, EET, MGM, and TOI. Due to
uncertainty in coverage, mention has been left out for now.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered rain chances return for Thursday, but better
chances in the southwest and the northeast likely remaining dry.
Moisture returns, with minimum RH values in the 35 to 50 percent
range during the afternoons Thursday through Saturday. 20ft winds
will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly Saturday at
4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  81  57  85 /   0  10   0  10
Anniston    60  82  58  85 /   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  63  81  62  86 /  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  65  81  63  87 /  10  20  10  10
Calera      63  81  62  86 /  10  20  10  10
Auburn      63  81  62  84 /  10  20  10  10
Montgomery  66  82  65  87 /  10  20  10  10
Troy        66  83  64  88 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12