Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 220454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1154 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

For 06Z Aviation.


Through Tonight.

Scattered fair weather cumulus are noted across Central Alabama
this afternoon on satellite. An elongated ridge this afternoon
extending from north to south across Central Conus will nudge
eastward through tonight toward the Mississippi River Valley.
Tight surface pressure gradients were in place today which
required the need for a wind advisory for the eastern 2/3`s of
Central Alabama. As the ridge slides eastward, the pressure
gradients should begin to relax. So, the wind advisory should be
good expiring at 00z(7pm CDT). Expecting fair weather cumulus to
to dissipate toward sunset. With clear skies and winds going to
light/variable this evening, overnight are expected to be a few
degrees lower for all across Central Alabama tonight. Current
county set up in freeze and frost advisories continues to look
good, and no changes are needed at this time for those counties.
Frost should be noted by most across the area.


Thursday through Wednesday.

A highly amplified pattern sets up through the end of the week with
troughing along the East Coast and Ridging sliding through the
center CONUS. Surface high pressure will build in across the Gulf
States Thursday and Friday leading to drier weather and mild temps
for Central AL. Later Friday evening/night, a surface low slides
through the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley,
stretching a cold front through the MS and TN River Valleys. This
cold front will push north to south through Central AL Saturday and
Sunday bringing a chance for rain. Moisture return ahead of the
front looks limited, and instability is minimal, so have taken out
mention for thunderstorms and carried Chance PoPs in the forecast
for the weekend.

The highly amplified pattern continues for early next week as a
strong low upper level trough dips into the Great Basin on Monday
while ridging builds in, once again, over the Gulf States. High
pressure sets up around the middle of next week with the trough
still off to the west. This could lead to isentropic lift and
increased rain chances for the MS River Valley. This could spread
into the TN Valley and into northern portions of Central AL by
midweek, but confidence isn`t high this far in advance, so have gone
with 50% chance of rain for now.

Otherwise, mild temperatures expected for the remainder of this
week, through the weekend, and into early next week.



06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Time segments were
based on wind speeds alone. High pressure will be building into
the region through Thursday and the atmosphere dries out even
more. Expect mostly clear skies with some mid and upper level
moisture entering from the north and west toward the tail end of
the period. Winds have diminished through the evening hours.
Winds will increase again after 14-15z and range between 6-11kts
with some gusts to 18kts. Wind gusts should be much lower than
the previous few days. Winds just above the surface will still be
in the 25-30 kt range overnight but will remain below LLWS values.




Breezy conditions continue today with dry weather overall. Fog is
not expected tonight. RH values will drop into the 30s for
again for Thursday. There are no fire weather concerns at this


Gadsden     29  58  38  62  47 /   0   0  10  10  10
Anniston    30  59  37  64  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
Birmingham  32  60  41  66  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  34  63  42  69  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
Calera      32  61  41  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
Auburn      33  60  40  66  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  35  64  41  71  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Troy        34  63  40  70  49 /   0   0   0   0   0


Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chambers...

Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...Cleburne...
Etowah...Jefferson...Marion...Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...


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