691
FXUS64 KBMX 112331
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

- Thunderstorms: Strong to severe storms are possible through the
  weekend. These storms will be capable of producing localized
  gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

A weak surface front will try to push into the region, influenced
by a trough to the north. This boundary will weaken by tomorrow
evening as it works away from the primary forcing associated with
the upper-level trough. Consequently, rain chances this afternoon
will be focused primarily along this boundary. Additional areas
of rain will also move into the south with the northward
progression of the sea-breeze from the coast. Given ample
instability through the weekend, a few strong to severe storms
are possible for this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with
damaging winds as the primary threat. The boundary will continue
to shift south and weaken by late Sunday evening.

In the meantime, a weak low pressure system is expected to
develop on the southern periphery of the trough, becoming closed
off from the main upper-level support by Sunday afternoon. This
closed low will meander southeastward, stalling near the
Tennessee River Valley by Monday morning. This feature will serve
as the catalyst for multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday as it drifts across the region. By
Wednesday, the closed low is projected to shift westward as upper-
level flow becomes dominated by high pressure building off the
East Coast. Under this ridge, rain chances into next weekend will
likely return to a more typical diurnal pattern of mid-July
showers and thunderstorms.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026

Most terminals should remain rain-free through the next several
hours. However, PROB30 groups for TSRA have been maintained past
12/03z, as the weak cold front works into the region. MVFR CIGs
are possible between 12/09-14z, but confidence was not high
enough to introduce that at this time. Otherwise, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected past 12/18z, with most
terminals carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA once again.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and moist air mass will persist through the weekend,
accompanied by light to calm winds. Widespread rain and
thunderstorms are expected into Monday as a weak system moves
into the region and stalls through early next week. No fire
weather concerns are anticipated over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  88  69  86 /  60  70  60  80
Anniston    73  88  70  85 /  50  70  70  80
Birmingham  74  89  72  87 /  50  60  50  70
Tuscaloosa  74  89  72  88 /  30  60  50  60
Calera      74  92  71  89 /  30  60  60  70
Auburn      74  90  72  86 /  20  70  70  80
Montgomery  75  92  72  88 /  10  70  70  70
Troy        74  92  71  86 /  10  60  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/