Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 052352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
652 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2023

Synoptically, an Omega Blocking pattern persists in the mid levels
with ridging aloft over the Northern Plains while lower heights
can be found over Central California and over portions of New
England. A weakness aloft was over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
while a light northerly flow pattern was observed over our area on
the morning sounding.

Surface high pressure was expansive across the Central Plains and
Midwest while a weak surface front extended from the Southern Ohio
River Valley across the Tennessee Valley southwest into Western

The wet microburst risk is moderate today. The heavier
thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing gusty winds.

This afternoon.

The area will remain between higher heights in the mid levels to
our northwest and lower heights aloft to the northeast while a
weakness persists over the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface high
pressure will persist across the far southern and southeast
portions of the Deep South Region while the surface front to our
north becomes more diffuse with time as it moves closer to the
area from the north.

Expect skies to become partly cloudy this afternoon with isolated
showers and thunderstorm activity across the west and northwest
with lower chances further to the east and southeast. Some storms
may produce gusty winds. Highs will range from the mid 80s in the
higher elevations east to around 90 west. Winds will be from the
southeast with speeds from 3-6 mph.


Little change to the synoptic pattern will occur overnight as we
will remain between higher heights to the northwest and lower
heights to the northeast while a weakness will persist to our
south and southwest. High pressure will remain across the Central
Plains and Midwest while a diffuse surface boundary will reside
just north of the forecast area from Central Virginia southwest
across the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-South Region.

Partly cloudy skies will persist across the north and west with
lingering showers and thunderstorms through the evening before
decreasing later in the night. There will be some potential for
patchy fog across portions of the west and northwest before
daybreak on Tuesday, but this will be primarily in areas that
receive rainfall today. Low temperatures will be in the low to
mid 60s across the area. Winds will be light from the southwest
with speeds from 2-4 mph.


The mid-level Omega Blocking pattern will result in the upper low
near New England retrograding eastward, extending the lower
heights aloft southwest further over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
Regions. This in combination with the remnant surface boundary
just to our north will result in isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity expected with the better chances near and north of the
Interstate 20 corridor toward midday where weak surface
convergence and lower heights aloft are progged to exist. Outside
of the shower activity, some hazy conditions may be experienced
across portions of the northern and western counties due to
residual smoke aloft that will be moving southward in the mid to
upper level flow pattern. Highs will range from the upper 80s in
the higher terrain east to readings around 90 south and west.
Winds will be from the southwest with speeds from 4-8 mph.



(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2023

Despite the close proximity of an upper trof and the expected passage
of a cool front Wednesday night/Thursday, forecast total rainfall
amounts Wednesday through Saturday are paltry, less than one-tenth
of an inch. The only good news is that the front will bring some
cooler and drier air into Central Alabama for a few days. Models
are depicting increasing chances of rain by the end of the weekend
as a upper low digs southward from the Greats Lakes region, and
pushes a cold front into Alabama on Monday.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2023

Diurnal convective activity will continue for the first part of
this evening but should stay generally W (and in TCL W & S) of
the TAF sites. Will forgo any mention in the TAFs for this evening
ATTM, but will monitor the activity S of TCL for any outflows and
new development. Winds should taper down with sunset to become
light/variable to near calm. Lingering boundary layer moisture
will bring the possibility of patchy MVFR fog in the pre-dawn
hours through after sunrise (~9-14z) for BHM/TCL/EET. Otherwise,
some afternoon TSRAs are possible again for all on Tue.




Isolated evening thunderstorms this evening, mainly along and
west of I-65. Scattered mainly diurnal thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Min RH values Tue/Wed will be in the 40-45 percent
range each afternoon. 20ft winds on Tuesday will be from the west-
southwest, generally less than 6 mph.


Gadsden     62  88  63  88 /  20  40  20  20
Anniston    62  88  65  88 /  20  40  20  20
Birmingham  65  89  66  90 /  20  40  20  20
Tuscaloosa  64  90  66  90 /  20  40  20  20
Calera      63  88  66  89 /  20  40  20  20
Auburn      64  88  67  87 /  10  30  20  20
Montgomery  64  90  67  90 /  10  30  20  30
Troy        64  90  66  90 /  10  30  20  40




LONG TERM....58/rose
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