091
FXUS65 KBOI 270229
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
829 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...
It`s a very quiet evening weather-wise, outside of some gusty
northwest winds over the Magic Valley. Expecting light winds and
mostly clear skies overnight. Upper-ridging continues to build
over the Northwest through tomorrow, which will bring the start
of a short but substantial warming trend to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Virga showers possible
west of BNO Monday afternoon, with minimal aviation impacts
expected. Surface winds: Winds becoming light and variable
after 27/03Z. 10kft MSL: SW-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with light winds.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A weak upper level
ridge will approach from the west tonight and move across the
area Monday. This will keep things dry and continue our warming
trend. As a strong trough moves close to the coast Monday night
and then comes ashore Tuesday, our upper flow will strengthen
out of the southwest. This will bring moisture into the region.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday
afternoon and especially evening, mainly in Harney County. These
showers and storms will be capable of producing wind gusts 40 to
50 mph, even ones with very little rain reaching the ground
(virga). As the trough continues moving east Tuesday, even more
moisture will be advected into the area, and there is a much
better chance of showers and storms. SPC has put the northern
fringe of our area (generally north and east of McCall) into a
marginal risk of severe weather. We expect this area will be
expanded south and west in the next update coming late tonight.
Even outside this area, wind gusts to 60 mph are possible with
storms Tuesday-Tue night. Temperatures will become relatively
hot Tuesday, with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. Record highs
are much warmer than this, and no records are threatened
Tuesday. Tuesday night, storms will move east, leaving only the
West Central and Boise Mountains with a chance of precipitation
after midnight.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...A chance of showers and
storms will continue in the east Wednesday as the system leaves
the area. NW flow aloft will build in, and by Thursday the
residual moisture will be swept off to the east. This will leave
us with a high probability of staying dry Thu night through
Saturday. During this time, our upper level flow will become
mainly zonal. Some model runs show a weak trough moving in
Sunday, but confidence is low and therefore the forecast is for
dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal Wed and Thu,
climbing above normal Fri through Sun.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP