373
FXUS65 KBOI 122042
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
242 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A shortwave trough
will approach our area tonight. Enough moisture and instability
will exist for isolated shower and thunderstorm development
across southeast Oregon this evening before weakening overnight.
Dry surface conditions will result in gusty outflow winds near
thunderstorms. A 5-10% chance of showers will persist
overnight, with clouds increasing across southwest Idaho as
the system moves east. The trough axis and weak cold front will
cross our area Monday afternoon. A few showers will develop
Monday morning, but most shower and thunderstorm activity will
take place Monday afternoon and early evening. Most of the
showers and storms will develop across the central Idaho
mountains and near the Nevada border where daytime instability
will be greatest. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but
still nearly 10 degrees above normal. Winds will be breezy
behind the front.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...An upper level ridge will
remain centered over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday while a
shortwave trough drops south along the east side of the ridge on
Tuesday. The shortwave trough will move through the northern
Rockies and clip our area causing the ridge to retreat slightly
westward. This will produce a 5-15% chance of showers and
thunderstorms across central Idaho with dry conditions
elsewhere. Northwesterly flow will cool temperatures a few
degrees, and the trough will produce breezy conditions,
especially across south- central Idaho. The ridge will rebuild
eastward again on Wednesday, bringing dry and slightly warmer
conditions through Thursday. Model Ensembles are hinting that
another stronger shortwave trough will push the ridge back
toward the west again by Friday or Saturday. If this pattern
shift occurs as most models are now showing, temperatures to
cool a bit and the chance of precipitation will increase for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with scattered cumulus clouds across southwestern
Idaho and southeastern Oregon. Atmosphere will become more unstable
and a few thunderstorms are possible (20 percent chance) this
evening and again on Monday afternoon...mainly south of a KBNO-KMUO-
KTWF line. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, strongest KMUO to
KJER/KTWF, becoming variable 10 kt or less at night. Winds at 10kft
MSL: W-NW 15-25 kts.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt, then SE around 5 kt tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this evening south of the
Snake River are expected to remain well south of the airport and are
not mentioned in KBOI TAF at this time.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB