Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
570 FXUS65 KBOI 210245 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 845 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough that brought scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the area today will move east tonight, leaving clearing skies and decreasing winds in its wake. Showers will continue to decrease this evening and end by midnight MDT. A weak upper level ridge will move overhead on Tuesday, bringing temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than today, lighter (but still breezy) winds, and mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase late in the day as a deep upper low approaches the area. Current forecast is on track and no updates anticipated this evening. && .AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers ending by 06Z. Snow levels 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 5-15 kt by 06Z. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under mostly clear skies. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt by 04Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...An active and unsettled pattern is on deck for the short term period as successive upper level lows move through the region. The first upper level trough will continue to dig through the region today, bringing sufficient instability for thunderstorms and showers. As of 1:00pm MDT, there is one weak thunderstorms just north of Gooding, ID, bringing strong winds and brief rain. Winds are gusting quite a bit throughout the region with KBOI sustained at 18 mph with gusts to 33 mph. This is mainly due to downsloping and gradient winds, but additional outflows could strengthen local gusts to 40-50 mph. Radar indicates showers developing and satellite visible imagery shows widespread cumulus development throughout the region. Therefore, have increased chance of precipitation and coverage of showers and thunderstorms to further west over portions of southeast Oregon. Hi-res model guidance continues to show pulsing showers- thunderstorms over much of southwest Idaho through the early evening. Tuesday should be somewhat mild, with a weak upper level ridge building ahead of a much colder and wetter cut off low late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will be mostly light, with Tuesday likely being the warmest day of the week. By Tuesday evening, valley rain and snow above 6000 feet should begin in southeast Oregon. Precipitation will come in a line with the initial cold frontal passage late Tuesday night. By early Wednesday morning, precipitation will spread into southwest Idaho. Most of this precipitation should be stratiform with the initial line on Wednesday morning, but convective showers with a stray thunderstorm could form over the Central ID mountains. Snow levels will be right around 6500 feet during the day, lowering to 5000 feet overnight. Therefore, light snow is possible early Wednesday and late Wednesday night. Temperatures will be below normal after Tuesday. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Moisture wrapping around the exiting closed low will keep rain and snow over the mtns of Baker County and w-central Idaho Thursday. Liquid amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch (0.10) limiting additional snow totals to less than an inch. Snow level forecasts remain between 4500-5000 feet Thursday morning rising to 6-7kft MSL by afternoon. Otherwise most of SE Oregon and SW Idaho are dry on Thursday and the drying trend will extend into the mountains Thursday night as the low exits eastward. Friday will be mostly dry though the Baker County and w- central Idaho mtns will keep a 20% chance of light afternoon showers fueled by increasing instability and moisture ahead of the next cold- core low. Precipitation accompanying this next low will arrive Friday night, carrying through Saturday night as the it tracks from WA into eastern ID. Among the deterministic models the best overlap for precipitation remains across e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho where probability for rain/snow remains 30-60%. Areas from the I-84 corridor and points to the south and east will see lesser probabilities generally below 25%. Sunday and Monday will trend drier as a shortwave ridge moves into the area. Thursday will be the coolest day, warming closer to normal Friday through Sunday, warming above normal on Monday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...ST AVIATION.....BW SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....DG